As for total disarmament, there are almost 50,000 nuclear weapons in the world today; even if they were banned, not all would be destroyed. Herman Kahn More Quotes by Herman Kahn More Quotes From Herman Kahn Risk-taking is the essence of innovation. Herman Kahn innovation risk essence Authority is not power; that's coercion. Authority is not knowledge; that's persuasion, or seduction. Authority is simply that the author has the right to make a statement and to be heard. Herman Kahn seduction persuasion coercion I'm against ignorance. I'm against sloppy, emotional thinking. I'm against fashionable thinking. I am against the whole cliché of the moment. Herman Kahn emotional ignorance thinking From a scientific perspective there is some indication that a nuclear war could deplete the earth's ozone layer or, less likely, could bring on a new Ice Age - but there is no suggestion that either the created order or mankind would be destroyed in the process. Herman Kahn ozone war order Failures of perspective in decision-making can be due to aspects of the social utility paradox, but more often result from simple mistakes caused by inadequate thought. Herman Kahn perspective simple mistake Because of new technologies, new wealth, new conditions of domestic life and of international relations, unprecedented criteria and issues are coming up for national decision. Herman Kahn issues technology decision The objective of nuclear-weapons policy should not be solely to decrease the number of weapons in the world, but to make the world safer - which is not necessarily the same thing. Herman Kahn objectivity weapons numbers My guess is that nuclear weapons will be used sometime in the next hundred years, but that their use is much more likely to be small and limited than widespread and unconstrained. Herman Kahn next weapons years To the extent that these advanced weapons or their components are treated as articles of commerce, perhaps for peaceful uses as in the Plowshare program, their cost would be well within the resources available to many large private organizations. Herman Kahn peaceful organization use A healthy and fully functioning society must allocate its resources among a variety of competing interests, all of which are more or less valid but none of which should take precedence over national security. Herman Kahn resources healthy should Projecting a persuasive image of a desirable and practical future is extremely important to high morale, to dynamism, to consensus, and in general to help the wheels of society turn smoothly. Herman Kahn wheels important helping For if enough people were really convinced that growth should be halted, and if they acted on that conviction, then billions of others might be deprived of any realistic hope of gaining the opportunities now enjoyed by the more fortunate. Herman Kahn growth opportunity people Nuclear war is such an emotional subject that many people see the weapons themselves as the common enemy of humanity. Herman Kahn emotional war people Only those who are ideologically opposed to military programs think of the defense budget as the first and best place to get resources for social welfare needs. Herman Kahn welfare-programs military thinking A surprising number of government committees will make important decisions on fundamental matters with less attention than each individual would give to buying a suit. Herman Kahn government numbers giving Nevertheless, during the sixty years of the twentieth century many problems have come increasingly into the realm of acceptable public discussion. Herman Kahn century problem years Many people believe that the current system must inevitably end in total annihilation. They reject, sometimes very emotionally, any attempts to analyze this notion. Herman Kahn sometimes believe people It is immoral from almost any point of view to refuse to defend yourself and others from very grave and terrible threats, even as there are limits to the means that can be used in such defense. Herman Kahn limits views mean In a world which is armed to its teeth with nuclear weapons, every quarrel or difference of opinion may lead to violence of a kind quite different from what is possible today. Herman Kahn differences may world In 1960 I published a book that attempted to direct attention to the possibility of a thermonuclear war, to ways of reducing the likelihood of such a war, and to methods for coping with the consequences should war occur despite our efforts to avoid it. Herman Kahn effort war book
