A macro unwind (of its positions) could cause severe selling given positioning and the nature of the players in this rally.

Morgan Stanley

Categorized in : Business

We have growing concerns about crude fundamentals and prices in 2H15 and 2016 after the quick recovery (since January) ... The market appears complacent about rising OPEC production and upcoming Iran discussions, both of which could more than offset U.S. declines, that said, retesting YTD (year-to-date) lows is very unlikely. Healthy transport demand, reflected in strong refining margins, capex cuts and low spare capacity should limit downside.

The USD downward correction is complete, a stronger dollar would only reinforce our near-term concerns for oil prices, especially Brent.

Shrinking dealer balance sheets coupled with bond market growth have led to a significant worsening of fixed income liquidity, especially in corporate bonds.

Brent crude prices (are) attempting to rally on rapid week-on-wee... by Morgan Stanley

Brent crude prices (are) attempting to rally on rapid week-on-week reduction in U.S. ... rig count.

Saudi, UAE, Iraqi and other Middle East production and exports (are) all higher TYD (to year date) adding to supply pressure.

Saudi, UAE (United Arab Emirates), Iraqi and other Middle East production and exports (are) all higher TYD (to year date)adding to supply pressure.

Exceptionally strong refinery margins and a soft maintenance schedule may skew the normal seasonality of refinery runs and push more (price) weakness into early summer.

It’s just science lab stuff now, it’s not really for immediate co... by Morgan Stanley

It’s just science lab stuff now, it’s not really for immediate commercial benefit.

With the market primed to sell any sign of weakness, the risk of... by Morgan Stanley

With the market primed to sell any sign of weakness, the risk of a large downward move is rising.

Without OPEC intervention, markets risk becoming unbalanced, with peak oversupply likely in the second quarter of 2015.

With OPEC on the sidelines, oil prices face their greatest threat since 2009, but we expect a volatile 2015 rather than a one-way trade.

A lot will depend on whether there are benefits from in-market co... by Morgan Stanley

A lot will depend on whether there are benefits from in-market consolidation deals.

We have previously notified applicable clients regarding these matters, which occurred several years ago, and have not detected any unauthorized access to, or misuse of, personal client information.

While there have been a lot of negative headlines over the promotional activities around the Morgan Stanley analyst Thomas Allen sports betting industry, it has resulted in a highly concentrated market that should be positive long term, scale matters and to-date, it appears that only FanDuel, DraftKings, and BetMGM have been able to consistently gain outsized market share.

I was wrong on this, i thought we would have been out of it past Labor Day, and we're not.

We anticipated further earnings estimate reductions through the 3Q results season, due to sustained PPI inflation, power shortages, and Delta-variant Covid outbreaks.

Bottom line: faster tapering with a greater deceleration in growth implies a greater than 10% correction.

If you can go to a restaurant in New York City, you can come into the office. And we want you in the office, by Labor Day, I'll be very disappointed if people haven't found their way into the office and then we'll have a different kind of conversation.

With the pro-independence parties likely to secure a majority in the May 6 Holyrood election, we see a 15% chance of independence.

So it’s a day for (the so-called) ‘reopening trade’ with strong financials.