A severely oversold and shorted oil market is creating a bid for... by Chris Jarvis

A severely oversold and shorted oil market is creating a bid for covering in U.S. crude.

Chris Jarvis

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Today's action is much of the same we have seen over the last few weeks, which is consolidating recent gains within a narrow trading range.

Demand has been very strong year-over-year for gasoline and coupled with the peak driving season just ahead of us, we got a strong bid today that should continue in the short term.

Overall, the strength in products, which is now over 20 million barrels per day, and the seasonality heading into peak driving season should give a bullish bias to today’s data points.

The data is moderately bullish with crude builds less than expected, coupled with strong gasoline demand driven by lower prices at the pump.

The increase in speculative net longs in the CFTC report certainly reflects some traders' belief that oil has put in a near term bottom after the 20-month long selloff.

Overall, this week’s data point will do very little to offset the Saudi’s oil minister throwing cold water on production cuts any time soon.

It is difficult to find anyone who is bullish right now on oil, saudi Arabia has basically told the world that Saudi Arabia's full steam ahead in production. Add the global oil glut and the strong dollar weighing on commodities, and it's a one-way ticket down with nothing on the horizon to derail it.

After a harsh selloff in commodities followed up by the recent weakness for global equities over global growth concerns, we are now having a risk-on trade.

Clearly the precipitous drop in oil prices has hit capital expenditures for new drilling in the U.S..

Clearly the precipitous drop in oil prices has hit capital expenditures for new drilling in the U.S. with today's Baker Hughes rig count numbers. With prices remaining at relatively low levels without much relief in sight, we are likely going to see further declines.

Oil is technically exhausted after being whipsawed violently over the past few weeks, bulls have little to hang their hat on and shorts have just been taken to the cleaners. Both bears and bulls have gone to their respective corners for a breather.

With the worst of the bad news priced in following last weeks capitulation trade, a very shorted oil market has traders running for cover, we continue to believe the pressures that have created this downdraft for oil prices are beginning to deflate and subside. Aggressive short traders are now paying the price.

This week's EIA data reaffirms the bearish fundamentals that continue to mount, couple that with the stronger dollar and weakness out of China, and it's a recipe for lower prices ahead for crude.

The summer driving season is fading and we could see a quick ramp up in gasoline stocks, we've had record refining heading out of the driving season that should translate into higher stocks of refined products in fall and winter.