A strong El Nio is in place and should exert a strong influence over our weather this winter, while temperature and precipitation impacts associated with El Nio are favored, El Nio is not the only player. Cold-air outbreaks and snow storms will likely occur at times this winter.

Mike Halpert

There is significant difference between this event and (19)97 as well as 19(82). We’re not quite sure why that is, if you look at the ocean temperatures, we know it’s warmer in the western part of the Pacific than it was during these other strong events but it’s actually a little cooler in the eastern part.

A strong El Nino is in place and should exert a strong influence over our weather this winter, while temperature and precipitation impacts associated with El Nino are favored, El Nino is not the only player. Cold-air outbreaks and snowstorms will likely occur at times this winter. However, the frequency, number and intensity of these events cannot be predicted on a seasonal timescale.

Although the Winter Outlook is good news for California, a wet winter is not guaranteed and even a wetter-than-average winter is unlikely to erase four years of drought.

We have more confidence in the forecast this year, compared to other years with the strong El Niño, el Niño is normally a positive for the U.S. in the winter. It can lead to milder than normal temperatures in the north, and beneficial rains to California.

California would need close to twice its normal rainfall to get out of drought and that's unlikely.

What we've learned from this event is that our definition is very confusing and we need to work on it.

This is not the answer for California.