A very cautious open this morning supported by a better than expected (non-farm payrolls), traders remain incredibly cautious about the dimmer global economic overhang.

Stephen Innes

Categorized in : Business

Gasoline consumption is painfully weak given U.S. consumers are i... by Stephen Innes

Gasoline consumption is painfully weak given U.S. consumers are in peak driving season.

The CPI report will have no material impact on Fed guidance nor have a significant influence on the great Fed debate around 25 or 50, after all, the FOMC is unquestionably willing to let inflation run hotter after spending the better part of a decade trying to ignite those flames.

Imports down, exports likely up and refinery utilization at yearl... by Stephen Innes

Imports down, exports likely up and refinery utilization at yearly highs.

There is nothing like an early start to the hurricane season to support oil prices, but looking under the hood of the EIA data, it paints an even rosier picture for U.S. oil markets, imports down, exports likely up and refinery utilization at yearly highs.

The weaker global economic outlook is keeping oil prices under downward pressure, but tensions in the Middle East are enhancing awareness to possible supply risk and should keep a floor under oil in the medium term.

Tossing aside the short-term nature of fluctuations around the inventory data, it's impossible to escape the economic reality that we are in the midst of a global manufacturing downturn.

When bullish signals fail to lift the oil market's spirits, we should be very concerned this downtrend could run much further than expected.

(OPEC) sticking to their production curbs ... will continue to support oil prices as it remains the primary mechanism for the delicate task of keeping the market equilibrium intact.

Oil prices went ballistic after the API report, oil prices have been squeezing higher on escalating tensions in the Middle East. But with late-day draws showing up in the API report, this is a strong signal for the energy market.

Traders have lessened their odds for an immediate U.S.-Iran escalation in this forever smoldering hot spot.

With the Mexican stalemate averted and no harmful shockwaves from this weekend G-20 meeting ... oil could trade favorably as WTI and Brent will continue to track the broader risk environment high.

There are lots of supply risks with tensions this high. by Stephen Innes

There are lots of supply risks with tensions this high.

We have flipped from a state where it is a stock rally no one wants to take part in, to a frenzied paced splurge where hedge funds and investors alike continue to chase markets like greyhounds to the mechanical rabbit.

The U.S. chief Iran hawks indeed have the President's ear as (Secretary of State) Pompeo and (National Security Advisor) Bolton are singularly focused on bringing Iran's economy to its knees, predictably oil prices are rising.

China's PMI number was the most significant monthly increase since 2012, which should ease concerns around a potential threat to oil demand.

PMI is such a driver of commodity prices I do think the markets will swing to the demand side of the equation as that element is so underpriced.

Crude continues to extend gains as early reports from Beijing regarding trade negotiations are fueling optimism around successful trade talks between the U.S. and China, after a dreadful December for risk markets, crude oil continues to catch a positive vibe.

There's a lack of adoption on Wall Street, the big banks that most people are doing business with are reticent to get involved, which I think is telling.

Oil prices were flying higher overnight after catching an updraft from the U.S. administration calling for allies to cut Iran imports to zero tolerance.

This escalation of the trade war is dangerous for oil prices, let's hope cooler heads prevail, but I'm not overly optimistic.