Almost everyone's instinct is to be overconfident and read way too much into a hot or cold streak. Nate Silver More Quotes by Nate Silver More Quotes From Nate Silver Any one game in baseball doesn't tell you that much, just as any one poll doesn't tell you that much. Nate Silver pollsbaseballgames I don't play fantasy baseball anymore now because it's too much work, and I feel like I have to hold myself up to such a high standard. I'm pretty serious about my fantasy football, though. Nate Silver baseballplayfootball The thing that people associate with expertise, authoritativeness, kind of with a capital 'A,' don't correlate very well with who's actually good at making predictions. Nate Silver predictionskindpeople I prefer more to kind of show people different things than tell them 'oh, here's what you should believe' and, over time, you can build up a rapport with your audience. Nate Silver differentbelievepeople Precise forecasts masquerade as accurate ones. Nate Silver masqueradeforecastsaccurate We want to get 80%-85% of predictions right, not 100%. Or else we calibrated our estimates in the wrong way. Nate Silver predictionswantway We are living our lives more online and you need to have different ways to capture that. Nate Silver differentwayneeds Voters' memories will fade some. Nate Silver fadesvotersmemories The problem is that when polls are wrong, they tend to be wrong in the same direction. If they miss in New Hampshire, for instance, they all miss on the same mistake. Nate Silver problemmissingmistake In politics people build whole reputations off of getting one thing right. Nate Silver reputationwholepeople People attach too much importance to intangibles like heart, desire and clutch hitting. Nate Silver desireheartpeople It's a little strange to become a kind of symbol of a whole type of analysis. Nate Silver analysisstrangelittles A lot of the time nothing happens in a day. Nate Silver things-happenhappens You don't want to influence the same system you are trying to forecast. Nate Silver influencewanttrying Remember, the Congress doesn't get as many opportunities to make an impression with the public. Nate Silver congressopportunityremember I think people feel like there are all these things in our lives that we don't really have control over. Nate Silver feelspeoplethinking You don't want to treat any one person as oracular. Nate Silver treatspersonswant I have to make sure that I make good choices and that if I put my name on it, it's a high-quality endeavor and that I have time to be a human being. Nate Silver qualitychoicesnames I'm not trying to do anything too tricky. Nate Silver trickytrying Race is still the No. 1 determinant in every election. Nate Silver electionstillsrace
