Bagram grew into such a massive military installation that, as with few other bases in Afghanistan and even Iraq, it came to symbolize and epitomize the phrase ‘mission creep’.

Andrew Watkins

For maximum temperatures, for minimum temperatures and for mean temperatures, it's not only been our hottest January on record, it's actually been our hottest month on record, and those records go back to 1910, odds are favoring that heat continuing at least through February into March and April.

Like the last time, we are seeing a rapid cooling off in the Pacific Ocean, a strong signal La Nina's on the way.

Remember, peak values typically occur late in the year so we have a three to seven months to go before we may peak in the current event. The 1987 (event) peaked in August – all other events peaked between November and February.

This outlook also means the risk of heatwaves is increased.

The key culprit of our current and expected conditions is one of the strongest positive Indian Ocean dipole events on record.