Earnings momentum is building in Europe. The currency and an improving economy are the two main drivers of our positive forecast.

Robert Parkes

Categorized in : Company News

Companies are not giving any guidance, so it's difficult for analysts to change their numbers. Some analysts could wait until Q3 results when companies might give more guidance in terms of how much Brexit has affected their businesses.

European economic growth is still sluggish but is gradually accelerating, whereas it is stalling in the U.S.. Monetary policies in Europe are much more supportive and there is an increased competitiveness from a weaker euro.

The Q2 results season is up and running and the early indications are positive, we believe there is plenty more to come and see the improving global business cycle taking over from currency as the key driver of earnings in 2016.

We have had a pickup in some of the U.S. economic indicators and this development tends to go hand in hand with increasing rate hikes fears, we are not dismissing the potential for short-term volatility, but fundamentally we see the market remaining supported in the longer term.

We believe that market optimism on the mining sector is at a pretty low level on concerns regarding supply-side issues and the sustainability of Chinese growth. And that makes the sector sensitive to any good news coming through, we are overweight on the mining sector and believe that the pessimism is overdone especially in the current environment where the business cycle indicators are starting to point upwards. It's a cyclical sector and is exposed to a re-acceleration in the global economy.

Whilst U.S. earnings are at a record high, European earnings are depressed and at a cyclical low. It is normally at this point in the cycle that European earnings surprise on the upside.

The net effect, after taking into account a hit on the energy sector, will be positive for European earnings.

We think they will deliver quantitative easing (bond buying) in the first quarter, and that will offer support to European stocks.