Robert J. Shiller: Fear causes individuals to restrain their spending...

Economists who adhere to rational-expectations models of the world will never admit it, but a lot of what happens in markets is driven by pure stupidity - or, rather, inattention, misinformation about fundamentals, and an exaggerated focus on currently circulating stories.

Robert J. Shiller

stupidity focus expectations

In the longer run and for wide-reaching issues, more creative solutions tend to come from imaginative interdisciplinary collaboration.

Robert J. Shiller

issues creative running

It amazes me how people are often more willing to act based on little or no data than to use data that is a challenge to assemble.

Robert J. Shiller

data challenges people

The ability to focus attention on important things is a defining characteristic of intelligence.

Robert J. Shiller

intelligence focus inspirational

Some of the best theorizing comes after collecting data because then you become aware of another reality.

Robert J. Shiller

data collecting reality

A major boom in real stock prices in the US after Black Tuesday brought them halfway back to 1929 levels by 1930. This was followed by a second crash, another boom from 1932 to 1937, and a third crash. Speculative bubbles do not end like a short story, novel, or play. There is no final denouement that brings all the strands of a narrative into an impressive final conclusion. In the real world, we never know when the story is over.

Robert J. Shiller

real play tuesday

Money management has been a profession involving a lot of fakery - people saying they can beat the market, and they really can't.

Robert J. Shiller

beats management people

Stock prices are likely to be among the prices that are relatively vulnerable to purely social movements because there is no accepted theory by which to understand the worth of stocks....investors have no model or at best a very incomplete model of behavior of prices, dividend, or earnings, of speculative assets.

Robert J. Shiller

investing movement earning

Economics is (now) about emotion and psychology.

Robert J. Shiller

psychology challenges inspire

My father, Benjamin Shiller, told me not to believe in authorities or celebrities - that society tends to imagine them as superhuman. It's good advice. People are snowed by celebrities all the time. In academia people have this idea of achieving stardom - publishing in the best journals, being at the best university, writing on the hot topic everyone else is writing about. But that's what my father told me not to do. He taught me that you have to pursue things that sound right to you.

Robert J. Shiller

writing believe father

Consider our difficulties avoiding junk food and overspending. Such addictions were carefully planned-for by professional marketing teams.

Robert J. Shiller

addiction marketing team

I have argued that we need livelihood insurance, which would protect people against the risk of seeing their skills and expertise no longer needed. Such insurance could be offered by the private sector.

Robert J. Shiller

risk skills people

Can a controlled experiment explain why people like Kewpie dolls in one year, Beanie Babies in another, and American Girl dolls this year? Yet social scientists are asked to answer analogous questions. We economists and perhaps psychologists shouldn't overreact to the derision. That is, we shouldn't try to overlay a false sense of precision on our admittedly squooshy work.

Robert J. Shiller

girl baby years

I am worried that the collapse of home prices might turn out to be the most severe since the Great Depression.

Robert J. Shiller

great-depression home might

Liberalism downplays certain of our moral senses: loyalty, authority, and sanctity.

Robert J. Shiller

moral loyalty authority

Life's meaning heavily benefits from lifelong bonds.

Robert J. Shiller

lifelong benefits

The good news is that, at least in economics, I've seen movement away from its overemphasis on mathematical models of purely rational behavior to a more eclectic and commonsense approach: research that is, among other things, more respectful of insights from psychology.

Robert J. Shiller

psychology news research

Marketers know that if people you respect - perhaps laughably including entertainers and athletes - say they like a product, you're more likely to buy.

Robert J. Shiller

marketers athlete people

My clinical psychologist wife of 40 years has always had a close intellectual influence on me. When I was beginning to talk openly in the economics profession about irrationality in decision-making, I received a lot of criticism. Ginny would support my views and remind me that a whole other profession - psychology - studies people's irrational sides.

Robert J. Shiller

views people years

Somehow, talking to young students brings you back to reality - it should, anyway.

Robert J. Shiller

students talking reality

Fear causes individuals to restrain their spending and firms to withhold investments; as a result, the economy weakens, confirming their fear and leading them to restrain spending further. The downturn deepens, and a vicious circle of despair takes hold.