For Democrats, anything less than 15 net pickups will be a disappointing outcome [in presidency race].

Mara Liasson

Categorized in : Race Outcomes Disappointing

Both the Obama and Romney campaigns said they pulled all their political ads today in observance of the September 11th anniversary. But politics wasn't very far offstage. The Obama campaign sees foreign policy as an advantage this year.

anniversary political years

Until he announced his immigration policy last week, Obama had the support of most Hispanic voters - but not the enthusiasm they had shown for him in 2008. That may be changing in part because of the decision not to deport young immigrants whose undocumented parents brought them here as children.

support decision children

Obama's even keel sometimes comes across as aloof or even cold. by Mara Liasson

Obama's even keel sometimes comes across as aloof or even cold.

keel cold sometimes

As one conservative intellectual said to me - he said if the choice is between [Joseph] Stalin and [Adolf] Hitler, I'd pick Stalin, meaning Ted Cruz because he's more predictable. So there's real civil war inside the Republican Party.

Obama has built his public image around his ability to bridge divisions - racial, ideological or generational. And that was his reputation, even at Harvard Law School, where he was the first black president of the 'Law Review.

bridges law school

Romney still enjoys the Republicans' traditional advantage among voters who are veterans, but the Obama campaign is confident it can chip away at that.

veteran voters campaigns

The president is under 50 percent approval ratings in all the battleground states. So, you could say that President Obama is defying gravity by still being in a dead heat with Mitt Romney. And one of the reasons that he is, is because the changing face of the electorate are giving him a small boost.

approval-rating president giving

African-American voters are not nearly as enthusiastic about [Hillary] Clinton as they were about [Barack] Obama.

african-american voters clinton

While Romney has an overall deficit with women voters, his biggest disadvantage is with college educated women - wherever they work, at home, in an office, a store or a factory.

office college home

[Hillary] Clinton has also struggled with key groups of voters. by Mara Liasson

[Hillary] Clinton has also struggled with key groups of voters.

voters groups keys

This year [2016], however, polls show [Hillary] Clinton winning white college-educated voters by double digits.

college winning years

Republican candidates have won whites with college degrees in every presidential election since polling began.

presidential degrees college

White voters were 72 percent of the electorate in 2012, and their share of the population has shrunk a couple points since then. [Donald] Trump has had trouble winning certain segments of the white vote, such as suburban women and college-educated voters.

couple college winning

Mitt Romney got 59 percent of the white vote in 2012, considered by many to be a high-water mark with this demographic group. Can [Donald] Trump win a higher share of white voters than Romney and get more of them to turn out?

white winning water

[Donald] Trump's path to victory depends on getting historic levels of support from white voters, and particularly large numbers of white, non-college-educated voters.

college white numbers

What if he says [Donald Trump] plans to run again in 2020? by Mara Liasson

What if he says [Donald Trump] plans to run again in 2020?

trump what-if running

Even if [Donald] Trump concedes, some of his supporters have promised to take up arms against [Hillary] Clinton.

trump arms clinton

Does Donald Trump accept the results and concede graciously, pursue legal action, or tell his followers to take to the streets?

followers action doe

[Donald] Trump has said he will accept the results of the election - if he wins. And he has said the only way he can lose the election is if it's stolen from him. Weeks before any votes were cast, he was predicting widespread voter fraud. So if he loses, what does he do?

voter-fraud winning doe

If [Donald] Trump loses narrowly, it will make it much harder for the GOP to unify. Under that scenario, the Trumpists are likely to argue that the election was lost because the Republican establishment failed to rally around the choice their own voters made.

voters choices arguing