Gasoil demand is relatively healthy but clearly the weaker margins are reflecting an oversupply of product (especially gasoil) which has been exasperated by the start-up of the big refineries in the Middle East.

Richard Gorry

Categorized in : Energy

Next year we would see demand back around 1.2 million bpd, marginally IMO-driven, and partially as a base effect of low demand growth in 2018 and 2019.

We are of course also tracking the Fed fund rates, treasury rates, commodity indices, PMIs, etc, all of which support our concerns on demand.

There is simply no strong engine for growth in the market. Large economies are constrained by geopolitical uncertainty (Trade War/Brexit), while emerging/developing economies are dealing with this and relatively high prices, we are of course also tracking the Fed fund rates, treasury rates, commodity indices, PMIs, etc, all of which support our concerns on demand.

The U.S. crude market seems to have passed the worst point and crude runs should start creeping higher, taking pressure off inventory levels, the latest EIA data on U.S. production is also supportive as it indicates that the low prices are finally having an impact.

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The next quarter is going to be particularly tough as we go from a high-demand to a low-demand quarter, can you rule out $20 per barrel? No, you can't.

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A lot of producers are trying to maintain positive cash-flows and that means maximising output, and Iranian barrels are also coming back to the market.

In the longer-term, it's not really a question of oversupply. Oil is still a scarce resource, outside the U.S., we haven't seen supply rising by much, so in the longer term the Iranian oil will actually be needed to keep the market balanced.

I would expect a decline in fuel imports into China as the consumption tax hits the teapot refiners, who have already been reducing throughput of fuel oil as they gain greater access to internationally sourced crude oil.

For crude, there's a structural change, going from fairly balanced to an oversupply, for products...demand has not collapsed, (it's) just a tendency of oversupply of refining capacity and slower demand than had hoped for.