Growing fears of a supply squeeze and heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East will add a risk premium for oil prices, oil markets though adequately supplied over well-stocked global inventories will remain fragile as market deliberate looming supply-side uncertainties. A prolonged supply outage and heightened militaristic tensions (Middle East) will keep traders fixated on growing market risks in the current term.

Benjamin Lu

Categorized in : Top News

Upside potential for crude oil futures will remain limited, however, as strong U.S. production and demand-side concerns cap bullish gains for the current term.

If the Fed is a little more dovish and prices in a 75 basis points cut ... we might see oil pushing up towards $60.

Growing challenges in the macroeconomic environment have kept bullish bets in check as risk appetites remain soft over potential weakness in global fuel demand.

Shaky macroeconomic fundamentals and downward revisions by IEA on global oil demand has capped bullish gains, markets fear looser market fundamentals in the longer term.

Rising U.S. shale production levels, subdued global economic momentum and existing trade uncertainties will cap bullish gains for crude oil futures.

The weakness in the dollar seen due to the rate cut expectations and a lot of short-covering due to the sudden jump in prices are behind the sharp move, with this move, the target for gold investors has moved to $1,400 and the key is to sustain this momentum for this week. On the longer term, it is going to be difficult to stay above $1,400 as with better conditions for riskier assets due to rate cuts, investors might move to equities.

Growing tensions in the Middle East remain a cause for concern as traders fear supply disruptions over an escalation towards militaristic conflicts.

Crude oil futures edged up as market sentiments were buoyed by a surprise drawdown in U.S. crude oil inventories and tighter market fundamentals in the current term.

Crude oil futures continue to demonstrate whippy trades as markets balance between OPEC-led cuts and the effects of rising U.S. production levels.

The sharp drop in oil prices is likely due to market jitters on potential waivers in U.S. sanctions on Iranian petroleum exports (in May), the effects of additional U.S. waivers on Iran will impede OPEC+ efforts to rebalance oil markets in 2019.

Sharp production cuts by OPEC+ have kept crude oil futures supported, however, as market reports indicate for a marked output reduction in Dec 2018, though oil prices have demonstrated for higher upside potential in the first quarter of 2019, mounting economic challenges will continue to impede exponential gains in the longer term.