Hillary Clinton has had a small but persistent lead since June - anywhere from 2 to 5 points. The stock markets and the election betting pools are predicting a Clinton win. Mara Liasson More Quotes by Mara Liasson More Quotes From Mara Liasson Both the Obama and Romney campaigns said they pulled all their political ads today in observance of the September 11th anniversary. But politics wasn't very far offstage. The Obama campaign sees foreign policy as an advantage this year. Mara Liasson anniversary political years Until he announced his immigration policy last week, Obama had the support of most Hispanic voters - but not the enthusiasm they had shown for him in 2008. That may be changing in part because of the decision not to deport young immigrants whose undocumented parents brought them here as children. Mara Liasson support decision children Obama's even keel sometimes comes across as aloof or even cold. Mara Liasson keel cold sometimes As one conservative intellectual said to me - he said if the choice is between [Joseph] Stalin and [Adolf] Hitler, I'd pick Stalin, meaning Ted Cruz because he's more predictable. So there's real civil war inside the Republican Party. Mara Liasson party real war Obama has built his public image around his ability to bridge divisions - racial, ideological or generational. And that was his reputation, even at Harvard Law School, where he was the first black president of the 'Law Review. Mara Liasson bridges law school Romney still enjoys the Republicans' traditional advantage among voters who are veterans, but the Obama campaign is confident it can chip away at that. Mara Liasson veteran voters campaigns The president is under 50 percent approval ratings in all the battleground states. So, you could say that President Obama is defying gravity by still being in a dead heat with Mitt Romney. And one of the reasons that he is, is because the changing face of the electorate are giving him a small boost. Mara Liasson approval-rating president giving African-American voters are not nearly as enthusiastic about [Hillary] Clinton as they were about [Barack] Obama. Mara Liasson african-american voters clinton While Romney has an overall deficit with women voters, his biggest disadvantage is with college educated women - wherever they work, at home, in an office, a store or a factory. Mara Liasson office college home [Hillary] Clinton has also struggled with key groups of voters. Mara Liasson voters groups keys This year [2016], however, polls show [Hillary] Clinton winning white college-educated voters by double digits. Mara Liasson college winning years Republican candidates have won whites with college degrees in every presidential election since polling began. Mara Liasson presidential degrees college White voters were 72 percent of the electorate in 2012, and their share of the population has shrunk a couple points since then. [Donald] Trump has had trouble winning certain segments of the white vote, such as suburban women and college-educated voters. Mara Liasson couple college winning Mitt Romney got 59 percent of the white vote in 2012, considered by many to be a high-water mark with this demographic group. Can [Donald] Trump win a higher share of white voters than Romney and get more of them to turn out? Mara Liasson white winning water [Donald] Trump's path to victory depends on getting historic levels of support from white voters, and particularly large numbers of white, non-college-educated voters. Mara Liasson college white numbers What if he says [Donald Trump] plans to run again in 2020? Mara Liasson trump what-if running Even if [Donald] Trump concedes, some of his supporters have promised to take up arms against [Hillary] Clinton. Mara Liasson trump arms clinton Does Donald Trump accept the results and concede graciously, pursue legal action, or tell his followers to take to the streets? Mara Liasson followers action doe [Donald] Trump has said he will accept the results of the election - if he wins. And he has said the only way he can lose the election is if it's stolen from him. Weeks before any votes were cast, he was predicting widespread voter fraud. So if he loses, what does he do? Mara Liasson voter-fraud winning doe If [Donald] Trump loses narrowly, it will make it much harder for the GOP to unify. Under that scenario, the Trumpists are likely to argue that the election was lost because the Republican establishment failed to rally around the choice their own voters made. Mara Liasson voters choices arguing
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