I expect a $ 3 discount in WTI to Brent by next week, and that to possibly build to $ 5 or $ 6 in coming weeks or months.

John Kilduff

Categorized in : Energy

Given the volatility around the U.S.-China trade saga, it's hard to be short over the weekend, the turn of a phrase could restore the very hopes that were dashed just last night over a deal being struck.

Some of the vibes out of the U.S.-China talks are positive again and that's certainly what's fuelling the stock market, so oil is benefiting from it.

The U.S.-China trade war has caused energy demand growth to take a big hit. Any glimmer of hope revives the prospects for a more positive demand landscape.

The Saudis appear to be redoubling their efforts to constrain global supplies, in response to this week's sell-off.

The data was net positive, gDP beat expectations... consumer spending was just off the charts, but business spending was nearly as bad as consumer spending was good.

It's going to be hard to hold onto the gains: there's going to be a question in the market as to whether the cuts are enough, so far they're getting the benefit of the doubt, but we've slipped a bit off the highs.

I think some of the risk premium that got built in because of U.S. tensions with Iran is easing a bit, i think we're also starting to see the economic concerns and demand concerns re-emerge for the market.

The situation with China is as bearish as the Iran situation is bullish, that's why I think we continue to be here in a stalemate.

The developing situation in Libya is also supportive, but, for now the oil is continuing to flow and will likely continue to do so.

If you read into (Trump's comments), I think there's speculation there will, in fact, be another round of waivers granted to countries and companies to buy Iranian oil, that's also why you're seeing the negative reaction.

The report was rather bearish, punctuated by the large crude oil inventory increase, gasoline demand remains anemic.

Production issues there today were a reminder that those issues a... by John Kilduff

Production issues there today were a reminder that those issues are ongoing.

It's telling that the multinationals are taking this sanctions business very seriously and are preparing to pull out of Iran. That's really crystallizing the loss of production we're facing.

There was a lot of anticipation in the market that there was going to be a lot of new oil coming to market, and that isn't going to happen, at least for now.

A move to put more oil on the market by Saudi Arabia and Russia would be very bearish for prices. The mere contemplation of it has hit oil prices this week.

You had a series of weak economic data points overnight. by John Kilduff

You had a series of weak economic data points overnight.

It's the same witches brew of bullish stuff: Iran, Venezuela, the lack of alacrity by Saudi Arabia to bring more oil onto the market.

This may one of the most bullish reports that I surveyed - even with domestic production rising to 10.7 million barrels per day, [S]uper-high gasoline demand and crude oil exports of nearly 2 million bpd, once again, add to the bullish tone.

This is a market that is on tenterhooks in terms of monitoring he... by John Kilduff

This is a market that is on tenterhooks in terms of monitoring headlines out of the Middle East.

The bandwagon trade just two months ago was that we will hit $ 60, but now $ 35 is looking like more of a reality, we're in a vicious cycle, with no sign of this glut in oil products disappearing anytime soon, while any cutback by refiners is backing up crude into the system. This tells me the rally is over.