I think (the Islamic State) is probably taking credit for something it may not have played a role in.

Geoff Porter

Categorized in : World

The Islamic State in Libya doesn't have comparable revenue streams – no oil sales, no sizeable population to tax and extort, in Libya, there is a superabundance of armed groups. For the most part they are busy fighting each other, but they could potentially be harnessed to eliminate Islamic State.

The jihadi landscape in Libya and Tunisia is extremely fluid, what may dictate whether an individual joins this group or that is not whether he is really an adherent to the Islamic State’s leadership or to al-Qaeda’s but the likelihood of being able to train for jihad and to carry out attacks.

More often than not, when the head of the snake is cut off, a more venomous one grows in its place, that is certainly a possibility here –- and there are no shortage of aspiring jihadis who are likely eager to pick up Belmokhtar's mantle.

Algeria is the only country in the region that has the capacity to effectively patrol its borders, even with the presence of foreign troops in northern Mali, Bamako cannot or will not enforce security along its border with Algeria. Likewise, Libya is a failed state that has no interest in border security.

Increasing pressure on terrorist activities in the Djebel Chaambi region may have squeezed the balloon, with terrorists seeking softer targets with more symbolic impact.

They have been the most active terrorist organization in Tunisia to date, it is rumored, but not confirmed, that they are getting additional personnel from Algeria because members of AQIM in Algeria have been fleeing intensified Algerian military operations.

This is the system that he built, as long as he is in power he's going to keep it that way, the risks that come with market reform and privatization are too daunting for Algeria right now.