I think there will be real friction but I do think the Russians will be able to manage it. There is a deal to be made.

Joshua Landis

Categorized in : Top News

The center of gravity for opposition shifts to Idlib province and Idlib city. That city is dominated by the al-Qaida wing of the opposition and other Salafist forces. The United States and the West cannot support those Salafists and al-Qaida. It means that the rebels are going to have a very hard time getting significant amounts of support.

hard-times support mean

New security architecture is being laid down in the Northern Middle East, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, in which pro-Iranian governments are consolidating their grip on the territory and they're backed by Russia, to a large degree. And this has caused great grief and consternation in Saudi Arabia and amongst many of the United States' allies, Israel, the Gulf countries, Turkey, because they see this new architecture of security and Iranian influence and Russian influence as something that's very bad for them.

architecture grief country

We saw that, as Syrian troops went to Aleppo, ISIS took Palmyra. But ISIS' days are numbered. The Donald Trump administration has said that they're going to concentrate on ISIS and they're going to work with Russia. Now, we don't know whether they really will work with Russia or not, but it's clear that ISIS is going to be pounded.

It's quite clear the Syrian regime in Syria, as the Iraqi regime in Iraq is benefiting from America's effort to destroy opposition forces in both countries. And there aren't any other rebel forces that one can foresee on the horizon that will be able to take Eastern Syria that's now occupied by ISIS.

rebel effort country

The Syrian government is weak today in 2017, but it's been gathering strength. And I think it's likely that, in the next few years, you will see the Syrian government retake much of Syria.

weak today thinking

I think the Bashar Assad regime is on a roll. I think it's got the backing of Russia and Iran and Hezbollah. And it's hard to see who is going to stand in their way in this steady fight against the insurgents.

steady fighting thinking

I do believe that the Kurds are in a difficult situation. They do have some American support. How consistent that will be is unclear. But they have built up a strong military, and they have begun to build the institutions of an autonomous life in Northern Syria. Turkey's enmity towards the Kurds and their desire to make sure there is no independent Kurdish state or even really autonomous enclave is going to push the Kurds into Bashar Assad's hands over time.

strong military believe

Kurds are going to have to strike a bargain with Bashar Assad that will keep them in the Syrian state and under some kind of Syrian authority, so that they can have the protection of international legitimacy and the Syrian army against the Turks. How they can bargain with Assad is unclear. What kind of negotiations they can come to, unclear. We will see whether they get something like the Kurds in Iraq, which is a large measure of autonomy, or something less than that. That will be one of the big negotiations to come out of this process.

protection army kind

Damascus needs the Kurds. The Kurds and Damascus have two things in common: enmity for Turkey and a desire not to see Sunni rebel militias ruling the northeast of Syria, but they don't agree on anything when it comes to ruling northeast Syria.

You can see all the pitfalls in this, it beggars the imagination how it's going to happen.

There are 1,500 militias out there that are all going to have to abide by this ceasefire, they've had no input into this.

Both sides will be trying to take advantage of this pause to strengthen their position.

This is tinkering around the edges and it does up America's role and it will allow America to go to the Iraqis and go to the Russians and everybody and say we are doing more, but it doesn't fundamentally change anything.

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This is tinkering around the edges and it does up America's role and it will allow America to go to the Iraqis and go to the Russians and everybody and say we are doing more, but it doesn't fundamentally change anything, this is more of ... what Obama has been doing for five years, which is trying to keep his critics on their heels by doing the minimum amount necessary while at the same time making sure that America does not get sucked into (Syria).

Many of them are from rural Ethiopia, they speak Amharic and dialect, the vast majority were very slow to learn Hebrew because they were older. The younger generation does, but even 50 % of the younger generation don't graduate from high school.

They're poor, it's very hard getting jobs, they feel like they're discriminated against in marriage -- many Rabbis have refused to marry them unless they go through a symbolic conversion.

It's going to require a dialogue that goes on for years and generations, as we've found in the United States, there can't just be a civil rights movement of a few years and it goes away. This is an ongoing problem and it's very deep-seated. It's socially ingrained.

Two years ago they were fighting each other, now they are fighting together. Moreover there is a major shift in the regional issue in Turkey, Qatar and Saudi Arabia. I think they are preparing something and helping indirectly with weapons, training, and backing. this allows him to coordinate with Turkey and Qatar taking down Assad, even if it means arming Nusra and other Islamist forces.

We are talking about arming the two percent.

Nobody’s going to do that for Syria ... All sides, all these proxy armies in Syria – their supporters are willing to spend enough money so that they don’t lose and not enough money that they can win.