If (oil) prices stay around $50, there could be some real damage... by Richard Aboulafia

If (oil) prices stay around $50, there could be some real damage to these programs.

Richard Aboulafia

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I gave a presentation in January where I said it was about a 65 % chance, now it's still in our forecasts, but it's hanging by a thread.

Richard Aboulafia

They have one of the biggest markets in the world, great resources, unlimited talent. The only thing they can do to fail is exactly what they're doing, if they change the rules, they could be phenomenal.

Richard Aboulafia

Whenever someone complains about the trade imbalance, the Chinese... by Richard Aboulafia

Whenever someone complains about the trade imbalance, the Chinese point to airplane purchases.

Richard Aboulafia

At this stage in the order cycle, it's pretty unusual for an airline to switch, it's certainly noteworthy.

Richard Aboulafia

This is a very positive development for both sides. Boeing got a great endorsement from a respected airline group and IAG gets a heavily discounted jet.

Richard Aboulafia

This doesn't change the fact that most people already have what t... by Richard Aboulafia

This doesn't change the fact that most people already have what they need in the pipeline.

Richard Aboulafia

Everyone who needs a single aisle, next generation jet already has ordered them, there are 11,000 on order. People have what they need.

Richard Aboulafia

It's possible that China's actions were motivated purely by caution and the interest of public safety. Yet the CAAC is basically an arm of the government, with no political independence, therefore, the CAAC's move to ground the jet... is best viewed as just another tactic in China's trade negotiations.

Richard Aboulafia

It's hard to tell what is based upon genuine disagreement about safety, what is based upon lack of trust, and what is based upon not wanting to be seen as rubber stamping the The FAA approval, but that's three reasons why it's going to be different this time.

Richard Aboulafia

This is the mother of all frontloaded markets. by Richard Aboulafia

This is the mother of all frontloaded markets.

Richard Aboulafia

Here you have the headline tragedy, the horror of 300 deaths, but for Boeing, the Dreamliner seemed scarier because we did not know how to fix it, and the consequences of not being able to fix it would have been devastating.

Richard Aboulafia

The technology is a headache, but not insurmountable. The damage to the reputation is the biggest challenge of all.

Richard Aboulafia

These developments are disastrous for the MRJ, they are no longer competing with small companies from Canada and Brazil; they are now competing with global aerospace behemoths, with enormous pricing power and industrial scale.

Richard Aboulafia

Airbus was very aggressive about booking orders and delivering planes and Boeing were very conservative; Airbus gets hit a bit worse.

Richard Aboulafia

It's bad news and it doesn't even begin to address the cost of de... by Richard Aboulafia

It's bad news and it doesn't even begin to address the cost of deferred production on the 787.

Richard Aboulafia

The issue is how do you as a manufacturer survive the ill winds blowing from the outside world, it is getting grimmer out there.

Richard Aboulafia

Tanker and 787 are the only issues that make sense as driving the panicky mood, i would expect Muilenburg would want to deal with this sooner rather than later.

Richard Aboulafia

Paying for that performance difference by developing a new jet is simply too expensive. Where would Japan find $ 40 billion or more in its defense budget to develop a new plane ?

Richard Aboulafia

People don't trust their neighbors, resource and territory claims require a keen knowledge of what the other guy is going, and military operations other than war demand strong situational awareness, and of course, societies, militaries, and non-state armed groups are electronically more noisy than ever, meaning countries need ISR to keep tabs on them.

Richard Aboulafia

The bomber win positions them as one of the two long-term combat aircraft players in the United States, they're getting back into a leadership position.

Richard Aboulafia