If these dates are driving the positioning of the (USS) Carl Vinson, the obvious problem is the Vinson can leave and the North Koreans can do a nuclear test the week after that, they don't have to do these tests pegged to any particular date.

John Delury

Categorized in : Top News

What's remarkable is how long it's been for Xi to make this trip... if you consider how overdue it is, from a North Korean perspective it's quite significant at least, i think what the Chinese are trying to signal is that this is official recognition of Kim Jong Un's North Korea.

There's some pressure in New Year's speech to articulate a vision of a real focus on economic development, how does Kim Jong Un reflect this strategic shift to economic development ?

I wouldn't expect a kind of revolutionary statement of a new economic concept, but you kind of have to look within their language for what are progressive ideas by North Korean standards.

There is a power going to enemy territory. The act itself builds confidence on both sides, it shows a healthy process of the two sides working with sincerity to fundamentally change the relationship.

It's very different from Moon going to Pyongyang or Kim Il Sung.DenuclearizationFor coming to Seoul, the location itself ensures it's a working meeting. Now within that context, they're breaking bread, they're spending a full day together, so that's important.

They're trying to create a moment. They're trying to open a window of understand and dialogue and figure out how to solve problems.

Trust is an issue, starting from zero, the two Koreas have a tangled history and have repeatedly accused each other of breaking agreements. You can't just say there is now trust and deliver trust. It has to be developed.

We got to talk, what has to happen is a senior American official or a trusted confidant of President Trump needs to get in the room with a senior North Korean official or confidant of Kim Jong Un. Until the talks start, this process we’re watching, is just going to go on and on and on.

The language is significant. by John Delury

The language is significant.

I don't think they're popping the champagne bottles because there's a whole set of difficulties that come with North Korea being engaged. In some ways it's a bigger stress on their system. They're very good at dealing with hostility and they know how to be isolated. It's harder for their system to have dialogue and cooperation.

The book has been out for a while. by John Delury

The book has been out for a while.

So much is at play now and they're both US citizens -- there's a lot in the air now as far as perceived threats.

With these important dates on the North Korean state calendar, they can dial them up and dial them down as they want to.

America has played a certain role in Asia since 1945 ... that role has in the end of the day been a stabilizer, that's what being undermined here with a president who thrives on unpredictability ... it's going to eat away at the fundamental credibility of the US role in Asia.

The bottom line is that the last thing they're going to cut is th... by John Delury

The bottom line is that the last thing they're going to cut is the military.

Regime change is spy novel stuff. by John Delury

Regime change is spy novel stuff.

North Korea's not really close to anyone, they've got sort of tense relations, at best, with their neighbors and then it's hard for them to have close ties with countries further away because they're subject to sanctions.Read More.

Now we're back on again, the game's afoot, sometimes these talks break down before they even start over what level to send, so this sounds like a very pragmatic and straightforward approach.

Kim Jong Un's easy to be wrong on this one.

It's easy to be wrong on this one.