If Washington grows frustrated with the lack of change or at least rapid change, the question becomes whether Trump reverts and takes unilateral action, that could mean a military option. The President has been very clear that The President views that as a plausible play.

Michael McCarthy

Categorized in : Politics

The supply side is keeping prices firm. by Michael McCarthy

The supply side is keeping prices firm.

Michael McCarthy

The problem is the widening of the dispute. Europe, the U.S. and China account for almost two thirds of global GDP, an ongoing disruption to trade between these three major economies, prosecuted for domestic political purposes, could sink global growth.

Michael McCarthy

There is a clear bias to the upside with the supply restrictions, and there's a much-better-than-expected demand picture after the recent China and U.S. PMI numbers, along with a potential kicker from any U.S.-China trade agreement.

Michael McCarthy

This is going to escalate nationally and internationally with the President Nicolas Maduro regime doing everything it can to marshal support from Beijing and Moscow, those actors might not support Maduro's style or leadership, but they're there to push back against the United States and they're not going to walk away quickly.

Michael McCarthy

This is a confrontational moment and I would expect full speed ah... by Michael McCarthy

This is a confrontational moment and I would expect full speed ahead escalation.

Michael McCarthy

The trade concerns have bitten today and the reason is that this is above and beyond what the market was expecting, although there is a long deadline on this, if these tariffs are introduced there will be an impact on global growth and demand.

Michael McCarthy

It's a combination of international investors attracted to the sector due to the falling Australian dollar and local investors playing catch up with the share market's 2016 high.

Michael McCarthy

There is very little bullishness. by Michael McCarthy

There is very little bullishness.

Michael McCarthy

There is likelihood of positive surprise on Friday and that will... by Michael McCarthy

There is likelihood of positive surprise on Friday and that will also add to the weight on gold.

Michael McCarthy

It's clear from the selling of bonds that the safe haven aspect of the investment market is less desirable than it was a few days ago.

Michael McCarthy

(Iran) is really another strike in the same beating the market ha... by Michael McCarthy

(Iran) is really another strike in the same beating the market has taken.

Michael McCarthy

With oil markets producing 1 million barrels a day in excess (of demand) and very little sign of any rational response from the supply side, it's little wonder we're seeing pressure again.

Michael McCarthy

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The Chinese economy actually contracted in December and that's adding fire to fears of a more rapid slowdown in the world's second biggest economy.

Michael McCarthy

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The U.S. inventory numbers showed a 16 million increase in distillates and other products, so it's clear they're still producing at rates that are unsustainable.

Michael McCarthy

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(Investors are) taking short-term positions after a good rally. by Michael McCarthy

(Investors are) taking short-term positions after a good rally.

Michael McCarthy

The low volumes and market moves are reflecting that. by Michael McCarthy

The low volumes and market moves are reflecting that.

Michael McCarthy

It's pretty clear production is being pulled back and finally we're seeing the impact of lower rig counts, there is potential for a bounce back in inventories if that was only a temporary aberration, but, of course, if the recent trend continues, we should see some support.

Michael McCarthy

That could be contributing to the surprisingly bullish reaction t... by Michael McCarthy

That could be contributing to the surprisingly bullish reaction to the overnight news.

Michael McCarthy

It's not a huge difference but supportive of the market overall. by Michael McCarthy

It's not a huge difference but supportive of the market overall.

Michael McCarthy

It's unusual to see the so-called safe-haven assets moving down with industrial commodities, potentially this selling (in commodities) is now being overdone, but today there's no sign of a turnaround.

Michael McCarthy

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