If we see a sustained substantial increase in weekly jobless claims, then we'll shift our recession stance.

Mike Skordeles

The consumer is the key, in our view, especially in hiring trends. More people with jobs, which come with additional income, provides the support for continued spending.

Consumers may get to a point where they're not going to pay higher prices and that causes demand destruction. We're not there yet, stagflation could be a concern if higher prices persist for an extended period of time.