It almost feels like something big is brewing.

Chris Weston

Categorized in : Energy

Global equities are undoubtedly expensive, but valuation has been driven by lower yields and liquidity, and this just makes this Thursday's speech from Fed chair Powell so important, for those running dollar positions, gold or U.S. equities...Powell's testimony is an event risk and one where we should consider how any reactions would affect our exposures.

company-news

Central banks are waiting for one man to act; Donald Trump.

top-news

Ranges have been on the tight side today, and nobody has been prepared to stamp down any authority, i have no doubt that will change as we head through the week, with trade relations slap bang at the epicenter of concerns.

top-news

It seems logical that they would want to see the wash up from this week's Federal Reserve meeting and hold the ability to be reactionary, if we see anything from Mr. Kuroda and the BOJ today, it will be setting the scene for additional measures if they so need.

business

It's a good news day, much relief will be felt from a number of retail investors who have been confused as to the very crux of the sell-off in global equity markets.

business

We're probably seeing a bit of a dead cat bounce in these banks today because the trend is still down, there may be a few brave souls looking to dip back in but the volumes are not particularly exciting. You're probably seeing some short covering from the offshore players as well.

healthcare

It's a good business, we are currently looking at the priorities, so I'm working with my team and looking at technology, markets, customer requirements.

energy

I think we’ll need to see a (monthly U.S. CPI) print of 0.8% to see the dollar index break out of the top of the range of 94.50.

The dollar will be sensitive to moves in the 2-5 year part of the U.S. Treasury curve, i think we’ll need to see a (monthly U.S. CPI) print of 0.8% to see the dollar index break out of the top of the range of 94.50.

Crypto is where the fast money is at, (Ether) is trending like a dream and I’d be long and strong here.

We know inflation will be transitory – it’s a question of how long it takes for the year-on-year change to head back to 2%, a number below 4.5% on the headline print and we should see USD/JPY and USD/CHF under pressure.

My back-of-the-envelope playbook is that we’d need a headline year-on-year number north of 5.5% to really set this market ablaze, we know inflation will be transitory – it’s a question of how long it takes for the year-on-year change to head back to 2%.

The risk is for a hotter number, but will good numbers lead to a broad risk-off vibe, as traders’ price in higher rate expectations, and the dollar rallies.

The U.S. is looking good on a relative basis, with rising inflation expectations, steeper yield curves, the U.S. vaccination rate is rising, and savings rates are declining.

If I were running long exposures, I wouldn’t be adding ... but questioning, if we see a deal, how punchy the gapping risk will be, if we don’t get a deal and the rhetoric from (EU negotiator Michel) Barnier or the British camp shows limited progress then we could see GBPUSD gap lower on Monday.

Traders need to assess their sterling exposures into the weekend, if I were running long exposures, I wouldn’t be adding ... but questioning, if we see a deal, how punchy the gapping risk will be.

The market is front-running the idea that we're going to see the case count dissipate, the baton is now being firmly handed over to the reality of the situation in economic data.