It means that the U.S. can't take Mexico for granted any more, lopez Obrador will be pragmatic ... but he's not going to bend over backwards to have a good relationship.

Andrew Selee

Categorized in : Top News

The Mexican governments decision to detain as many migrants as possible, after President Trump put pressure on them to do so, has made it clear just how many third-country nationals from outside Central America are actually in the country.

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The innovation of traveling in groups without a smuggler may persist, but it seems to be devolving into smaller groups.

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I think this is the chance for the two leaders to look each other in the eye and try to understand what they can actually accomplish in the relationship.

On one hand, Covid and the accompanying recessions left many people in the Latin American middle class a lot worse off, and people who would not have considered migrating have decided it's a useful option, at the same time, the ease of crossing the border has made some people who have ties to the US decide it's time to come now if they're going to make it. I think both those things are true at the same time.

On one hand, Covid and the accompanying recessions left many people in the Latin American middle class a lot worse off and people who would not have considered migrating have decided it's a useful option, at the same time, the ease of crossing the border has made some people who have ties to United States decide it's time to come now if they're going to make it. I think both those things are true at the same time.

The global recession really made people lose hope, it’s a big deal to go from being middle class in your country to be undocumented in the United States.

Two forces seem to be colliding at the same time, the Biden administration has made it easier for unaccompanied minors and families to enter the country, at the same time that the US economy is also heating up, and that has created incentives for people to try to migrate while they can.

I get the sense that the pendulum has shifted much more to trying to get the numbers down. At first, they were really concerned about separating themselves from the Donald Trump administration, i think they're really in contention on how to contain people from crossing the border. But they don't seem to have a lot of tools.

The evidence tells us if you want to change the narrative, it has to come from people's trusted networks. That's the bottom line, i can understand wanting to do anything to change the narrative, change the balance of people leaving, but this seems to be a stretch.

And there is someone who can make a call and it will be answered, without Biden having to pick up the phone every time. if she is seen as hitting the right notes, and eventually getting things sorted out -- and she's got time to do that -- it's a huge win for her politically. But if this continues to be a simmering issue over the next three years, then it will be attached to her as a politician.

Messaging matters, but reality matters more, you can message all you want but people respond to the real signals from policy changes. ... Confusion tends to lead people trying their luck.

You don't want a surge to happen before you're ready to handle it, they're going to have to rely on one of the policies they hate the most and that they disagree with philosophically, so that they can get to a long term fix.

We're talking about farm work, we're talking about caregiving, and probably food production like canning and warehousing operations.