It's a market that's searching for a rationale at this point ... and waiting for next week's (Fed) meeting.

Quincy Krosby

Categorized in : Company News

There are still concerns over geopolitical risk. by Quincy Krosby

There are still concerns over geopolitical risk.

The market is waiting to hear from the Fed... and whether they will deviate at all from their latest stance - and I call it an active dovish position - and to see if they continue to lay the groundwork for a rate cut perhaps later in the summer.

There's caution associated with the G7 meeting which historically is neutral for the market. This G7 meeting doesn't fit the template particularly with regard to trade.

Equally there's a European Central Bank meeting and a Federal Reserve meeting next week. Both are paramount for the market's direction.

Low volume is fairly standard at this time of the year and August tends to be a very choppy month, if you have low volumes, it could skew the market in any direction, and that's what you have today.

What this report does is it assuages fears about the economy losing momentum, that’s been weighing on the minds of investors.

What this report does is it assuages fears about the economy losing momentum. That’s been weighing on the minds of investors, in order for the market to keep going higher, there needs to be assurance that the economy is on solid footing and that the most important component of the economy, which is the U.S. consumer, is still gaining.

The market is positioning for a 'remain' vote, so you see the fear and uncertainty trade unwinding right now.

The broader question is whether the economy is gaining the kind of momentum and traction that we need for a market that has been looking toward new highs, no one is out to suggest the economy is doing a major turnaround because of this number, but we now need to see a clutch of data that suggests that this is a one-off.

They need other parts of the business to pick up but at the very... by Quincy Krosby

They need other parts of the business to pick up but at the very core it is about interest rates.

You heard one after another during the earnings season talk about the difficulties - they're cutting, they're closing stores, the fact of the matter is there have been questions about retail spending, and valuations overall in consumer discretionary were rich.

By June they will have a broad clutch of data and that could help them, and even some of the doves the Federal Open Market Committee, to come to a solid conclusion (on the desirability of a rate hike) and a conclusion, by the way, that the market agrees with.

Oil prices rising, it helps emerging markets, the notion that the Fed has no rate hike in March, it helps emerging markets, right now, over $30 (oil) is helpful for the tone in the market.

The oil story is not going away, as (U.S. crude) continued to push downward, it is affecting the market.

In many ways he was trying to undo some of the damage from the pe... by Quincy Krosby

In many ways he was trying to undo some of the damage from the perception that he didn't do enough.

We should enjoy the rally and perhaps wait until we transition into the new year to focus back on fundamentals.

Most likely, there will be more volatility in the market and part of the reason is oil prices and the worry that somehow the price of oil is a reflection of inflation and deflation, the lower [oil] goes, the more it is a deflationary barometer. The lower it goes, the more difficulty the Fed has raising rates.

Most likely, there will be more volatility in the market and part of the reason is oil prices and the worry that somehow the price of oil is a reflection of inflation and deflation, the lower goes, the more it is a deflationary barometer. The lower it goes, the more difficulty the Fed has raising rates.

The slowdown in China feeding into a slowdown in Asia, and the question becomes how much of that is feeding into the U.S.?

If you start seeing the unemployment rate come down with a broad swath of jobs being created, it should be positive for the housing stocks.