It's dollar play all over again today, the fact that the oil market is oversupplied is a given, so the only real variable now are currency moves and how they impact commodities demand.

Phil Flynn

Categorized in : Top News

The oil market is fixated on macro-economic issues and not necess... by Phil Flynn

The oil market is fixated on macro-economic issues and not necessarily current supply or demand.

So far, it doesn't look like there will be a military response. by Phil Flynn

So far, it doesn't look like there will be a military response.

The question is can they convince the market that they can keep t... by Phil Flynn

The question is can they convince the market that they can keep their oil fields safe.

The death of the global economy has been greatly exaggerated and the market is starting to realize that.

The possibility that the United States and China can get the trade talks on track ... is raising hopes that they might actually get some type of deal, that's why we are seeing this big rebound in prices.

If we get the drawdown in (U.S.) inventory that most people are looking for, that is going to get the market a lot tighter.

The Saudis will need a higher price for oil for its IPO, and this confirms they'll do whatever it takes to get oil prices up.

The trade war is going to increase the odds dramatically that the Fed is going to have to cut rates again, maybe twice this year.

Brent is pricing in more of the geopolitical risk than WTI. by Phil Flynn

Brent is pricing in more of the geopolitical risk than WTI.

All the major reporting agencies are reporting that demand is going to be weaker, that has played into the market malaise. Things we would normally rally off of, we're not.

What we've seen is global central banks are ready to respond to a slowdown in the economy, in the U.S., if that's the case, we're going to see more stimulus added to the market.

The market is taking a pause as it tries to digest mixed reports that give us different ideas of future supply and demand, the OPEC-plus meeting could give us a little direction.

The GDP missing a little bit psychologically was a warning sign that China is doing OK now, but not quite as strong as expected.

The market was still nervous. by Phil Flynn

The market was still nervous.

That basically took the wind out of the sails from the market, but it isn't unlike anything that they've said before. But it all depends on which countries they're talking about. Is it big buyers of Iranian crude? Is it India? ... Is it temporary waivers?

The expectation that we'll see more crude out of OPEC and that supplies in the U.S. will be tight because of the Syncrude outage ... is going to keep the market on edge.

It seems that somebody in the central bank is taking notice of the big drop in oil prices and sending a signal of, 'Hey, wait a second. We don't want these prices to fall too far,'.

It seems that somebody in the central bank is taking notice of the big drop in oil prices and sending a signal of, 'Hey, wait a second. We don't want these prices to fall too far - that could pose a risk to the Russian economy'.

There's more concern on the Brent side that supply losses from Ir... by Phil Flynn

There's more concern on the Brent side that supply losses from Iran are harder to be made up.

A 5.8 million-barrel build is kind of like a slap in the face, where it's like, 'Where did this oil come from?' And as you look through the numbers, it doesn't make a lot of sense, it is definitely a shock to the system.