It should have been 8% [on the 10-year], but technicals and demand will probably overshadow fundamentals.

Sean Newman

Categorized in : Company News

At 11% we don't think the pricing adequately compensates investors the looming macro-economic risks, we estimate a funding shortfall of US$2.4bn, which will probably result in further indebtedness at the central bank - which creates additional risks.

The credit dynamics of the city are positive given its scale and lower levels of debt, but it will probably come at 7.5% and we don't think there is a lot of value.

Given the airport's strategic importance as the country positions itself as a logistical hub for the region and the support of the government act as mitigants for the high leverage.

The dealers on it are keeping it hush-hush until they are ready t... by Sean Newman

The dealers on it are keeping it hush-hush until they are ready to come to market.

All the woes that were plaguing EM are somewhat diminished, you could call it the JOC principle - Fed Chairman Janet Yellen, Oil and China.

That's the million dollar question, ideally they'd like to get US... by Sean Newman

That's the million dollar question, ideally they'd like to get US$15bn.

Ideally they'd like to get US$15bn, but while Argentina stands in that bull's eye of having the right story coming at a better time, it still has significant risks.

Given the tighter guidance, for some accounts it didn't make sense to include it, some other funds where the objectives are different, we kept the order in.

The market is pretty much closed to Brazilian corporates at this time, so the sovereign wants to make sure there's a reference deal.

If they need all the US$15bn at once, they could do US$10bn in dollars and US$5bn in euros, the market is there, but it would lead to some indigestion.

If it comes at 8%, I would definitively look at the transaction carefully, argentina is still not out of the woods. People will turn their lenses on inflation and fiscal reform. You can't ignore these things, and that is why you need to price at the high end.

For the pari passu injunction to be lifted, you need the major fu... by Sean Newman

For the pari passu injunction to be lifted, you need the major funds at the table.

40bp is fair but it is certainly not a screaming buy, chile paid 30bp and Mexico 20bp, so you would think at minimum a high yield sovereign would have to pay north of 40bp.

This is the reason why the Dominican Republic can come to market, they benefit hugely from this low oil price environment ... Fundamentals are (also) supportive, with growth in the 5% region this year.