It suggests that the recent eruption in uncertainty towards Chinese and global growth is beginning to affect U.S. business decisions, we look for the Fed to take a pass on raising rates this month as they continue to assess the incoming economic data for any evidence of fallout.

Millan Mulraine

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The disappointing manufacturing output points to continued sluggishness in this segment of the economy and will likely remain a source of concern at the Fed.

Millan Mulraine
company-news

Overall domestic growth momentum appears to be on the mend. Nevertheless, the weak performance in business capital investment activity suggests that this segment remains a source of drag for the U.S. economic recovery.

Millan Mulraine
company-news

Notwithstanding the improvement in the deficit, which signals a diminished drag on domestic GDP, the broad-based falloff in both exports and imports activity is a sobering sign of some weakening in domestic and global demand.

Millan Mulraine
business

These disappointing reports will likely add to the caution at the Fed. Given the weak performance in these two key segments of the economy, we expect the rebound in growth momentum in the second quarter to be quite weak.

Millan Mulraine
top-news
The overall outlook for the U.S. industrial sector is beginning t... by Millan Mulraine

The overall outlook for the U.S. industrial sector is beginning to look a little better.

Millan Mulraine
most-read-articles

The reports point to some weakening in underlying economic momentum. That said, we continue to expect the recovery to rebound from the fourth-quarter stumbles, though the outlook beyond the first quarter remains very uncertain.

Millan Mulraine
most-read-articles

The overall tone of this report was encouraging, pointing to a respite in the ongoing recession engulfing the U.S. industrial sector.

Millan Mulraine
top-news

The healthy rise in manufacturing sector production is a welcome sign that the headwinds to this sector are beginning to ease, the outlook for the industrial sector is becoming incrementally more favorable.

Millan Mulraine
most-read-articles

Even though we continue to expect personal spending to remain a key source of support for economic activity this quarter, this report does point to a very weak start to the quarter.

Millan Mulraine
most-read-articles

This suggests that U.S. household sentiment has turned an important corner, and is a hopeful sign on the outlook for consumer spending activity going forward, given signs of weakness in other parts of the economy.

Millan Mulraine
company-news

The bigger question will be determining whether this deterioration in labor market momentum is part of a broader inflection point for the economic recovery, this is the Fed's 'known unknown,' and a risk management approach will require more patience to assess the incoming labor market data for an answer to the question of whether this is a realignment in the labor market dynamics to a more sustainable path, or a more worrying relapse in the recovery.

Millan Mulraine
business

It suggests that consumers are beginning to tighten their purse strings, this will be a particular concern for the Fed as this segment of the economy remains the key source of support for the economic recovery.

Millan Mulraine
company-news

We expect this report to deliver a further jolt to the Fed's confidence in their relatively optimistic economic outlook and further solidify the bias for a September hike.

Millan Mulraine
top-news

We expect growth momentum to re-accelerate over the next few months, providing the Fed with the necessary confidence they need to raise rates in September.

Millan Mulraine
company-news

The upshift in growth momentum should be sustained during the second half of the year, this will provide the necessary cover for the Fed to raise rates later this year, though the pace of tightening will be 'gradual.'.

Millan Mulraine
top-news

It adds to the disconcerting trend seen in other manufacturing sector indicators that have been consistently pointing to a lingering stagnation in U.S. manufacturing sector activity, while we believe that the dissipation of the various headwinds buffeting this sector should result in a meaningful rebound later this year, the timing of this seems farther into the horizon.

Millan Mulraine
most-read-articles

The underlying tone of this report suggests that the recovery is beginning to show some signs of strain. If anything it will temper, at the margin, any consideration for a September rate hike.

Millan Mulraine
most-read-articles

It suggests that the U.S. housing market recovery is back on track after the missteps earlier this year. We expect this upbeat tone in the housing recovery to continue as the favorable domestic fundamentals begin to reassert themselves.

Millan Mulraine
top-news

Both reports provided some support to the current underlying narrative that the positive momentum in domestic economic activity is being sustained.

Millan Mulraine
top-news
It provides some indication that business capital investment acti... by Millan Mulraine

It provides some indication that business capital investment activity might be on the mend.

Millan Mulraine
business