It will take a lot to derail the U.S. economy because of the sugar high it's on from the fiscal stimulus, but a developing trade war between the U.S. and its trading partners is a mounting threat. Ryan Sweet More Quotes by Ryan Sweet More Quotes From Ryan Sweet Inflation needs to accelerate noticeably for the Fed to consider raising interest rates, and that doesn't appear to be in the cards. Ryan Sweet top-news The general message from the labor market is that businesses are cutting back on hiring, but they are not laying off workers and that is important, consumers are what's keeping the economy moving at this point. Ryan Sweet business The slowing in the economy spooked the Fed and markets, but the sky is not falling, if we do get a recession next year it would be because we shot ourselves in the foot with the trade tensions. Ryan Sweet top-news We don't anticipate any significant acceleration in inflation through the remainder of this year, therefore, the Fed can cut rates in July and then keep them unchanged through 2020. Ryan Sweet business The labor market is rock solid, it is not overheating and it's perfect for the Fed to keep interest rates on hold. Ryan Sweet top-news We are due for some pay back after strong job growth over the last couple of months, i also think the timing is right for the tightening in financial market conditions last year to begin to affect the employment data. Ryan Sweet top-news Odds are that the tariffs will begin to boost import prices, the inflationary impact of the steel and aluminum tariffs has been modest, partly because a number of countries initially were exempt, but that has changed. Ryan Sweet business This will fan Fed concerns that inflation will overshoot the central bank's 2 percent objective by more than policymakers are willing to stomach, the Fed could be crossing its fingers that the supply side of the economy responds, helping slow or halt the unemployment rate's decline. Ryan Sweet business I would not lose sleep over first-quarter GDP, there is the residual seasonality issue, overall the economy is doing very well and will continue to do well this year and into 2019. Ryan Sweet top-news You can make a strong case either way for the Fed to begin raising interest rates or waiting, the prudent risk management approach would argue for them to hold off, but if the Fed was really data dependent there is a very strong case to raise rates on Thursday. Ryan Sweet most-read-articles You can make a strong case either way for the Fed to begin raising interest rates or waiting, the prudent risk management approach would argue for them to hold off, but if the Fed was really data dependent there is a very a strong case to raise rates on Thursday. Ryan Sweet top-news We expect a decent bounce back, which will suggest that the economy's struggles at the start of the year were temporary, gDP growth north of 2.5 percent is sufficient to reduce the slack in the broader economy. Ryan Sweet top-news What matters is the trend. We are making a lot of progress in reducing slack and unless the labor market weakens sharply, the Fed is on track to raise interest rates in September. Ryan Sweet top-news The labor market is doing well ... inflation is not going anywhere fast. There is no urgency for the Fed to start normalizing monetary policy, they will likely wait until September. Ryan Sweet most-read-articles We expect them to spend the windfall in the coming quarters. Ryan Sweet business Consumers have an enormous windfall to spend from lower gasoline prices. Ryan Sweet business The U.S. economy remains the best-looking house in an ugly neighborhood. Ryan Sweet top-news The increase in initial claims is less concerning than it may appear, the rise in new filings in California could be capturing refiles. Ryan Sweet The U.S. is experiencing cost-push inflation, which historically has proven more temporary than other causes of inflation, primarily demand pull. Ryan Sweet It will be a solid GDP number, it’s one small milestone in many that we have to hit before we can say we have fully recovered from the recession. Ryan Sweet
