Much the same could be true right now about the escalation of tariffs (and) with time, investors have managed to sidestep them and returned to the familiarity of focusing on the data, which in the case of the U.S. economy, still looks good.

Stephen Innes

Categorized in : Business

The deluge of U.S. crude production continues to hold the top-sid... by Stephen Innes

The deluge of U.S. crude production continues to hold the top-side in check.

Expect more of the same whippy markets driven by rumors and innuendos ahead of June 22 Vienna OPEC meeting.

If the market continues to trade off U.S. yields and diverging economic data between the U.S. and EU, it's hard to argue against the current direction in yields or the dollar, on the U.S. economic data front, the consumer remains the economy's backbone, and if this robust trend in the retail space continues to build, factor in a bit of wage growth pressure and the U.S. dollar will continue to move higher on the back of higher yields.

The dollar momentum...is probably going to carry the way at least until the next negative headline comes out.

With so many potential supply disruptors in play and few signs that the current market upheaval will end any time soon, traders continue to pay the geopolitical risk premium, oil prices should remain bid ... at least through the Iran nuclear deal deadline (May 12) if not for the remainder of 2018.

I needed to do some minor adjustment on both hedging and pricing algos. I also adjusted some circuit breakers, given our anticipated views on market volatility. It's worth doing so to avoid issues later.

No party wants a real war, but the risk of mishap or even aggressive war game escalation is real, which could always lead to a tactical mistake.

Pelosi's Taiwan visit is tainting sentiment today. And amid escalating tensions in Taiwan Strait and deepening worries about a global economic slowdown, investors are diving headlong into Stephen Innes bonds, no party wants a real war, but the risk of mishap or even aggressive war game escalation is real, which could always lead to a tactical mistake.

Still, the fragile detente does little to alleviate the absence of Russian oil.

In my view, betting on a significant pick-up on China-Russia commodity trade could end in tears.

The market is starting to readjust expectations for U.S. rate hikes after Powell’s speech on Friday, which was the green light for gold to move higher.

The dollar is staying weaker, that’s fairly supportive. Gold bulls now have their eyes set on $2,000, and most are thinking it’s going to go quite a lot higher.

When demand drives commodity prices, it has a more bullish impact and leaves a more lasting reflection on price action.

Wallstreetbets is hitting the point of diminishing value, retail traders will still be a force to be reckoned with, but we are perhaps past the peak YOLO world with the cat out of the bag.

All the ingredients for a rapid recovery from Q2 onwards are getting sweetly baked into the reopening party cake.

The spotlight will be on Washington DC this week.

Vaccine breakthroughs make it likely that life will become more functional again at some point in 2021, resulting in higher GDP growth and more robust corporate earnings, but increasing global COVID19 infections, new variants of the virus, tightening social distancing restrictions and delays in vaccine rollouts in some places, all increase the near-term growth risks.

Softer jobs growth and tighter social mobility restrictions ostensibly lower the hurdle for a policy response from (U.S.) Congress.

China's industry is coming back to life, and they need oil and lots of it.

There's a solid chance we get an OPEC deal this week, when the going is cheap.