Once (China) has all its facilities up and running, it will put the Philippines in a much more difficult position, the Chinese will be able to harass Philippine coastguard and naval vessels on a more regular basis ... they could try to impose blockades on other Philippine-occupied atolls, including Pagasa.

Ian Storey

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Although Russian diplomats have privately expressed concerns to their U.S. counterparts that China may one day put pressure on Moscow to terminate those projects, so far Beijing has refrained from doing so because of the ever-closer strategic partnership between the two countries, it would be a serious blow to the burgeoning Sino-Russian entente if Beijing asked Moscow to end its energy projects in Vietnam.

Ian Storey
top-news
Perhaps this proved too much for some of the member states and th... by Ian Storey

Perhaps this proved too much for some of the member states and the statement was withdrawn.

Ian Storey
world

If you beef up security for oil and gas assets, you are protecting yourself from non-state and state actors so there is some plausibility to what he's saying, but is it really being driven by Daesh? I don't think so.

Ian Storey
energy

None of these strategies work very well, but what can you do?, this dispute is going to be around for a very long time.

Ian Storey
energy

Fiery Cross is sensitive because it is presumed to be the future hub of Chinese military operations in the South China Sea, given its already extensive infrastructure, including its large and deep port and 3000-metre runway, the timing is interesting, too. It is a show of U.S. determination ahead of President Obama's trip to Vietnam later this month.

Ian Storey
energy

It demonstrates that the judges are striving to be impartial, and that they have been at pains to take into account the views of all the concerned parties, even China, which has refused to participate, and Taiwan, which isn't a member of the UN.

Ian Storey
world

For decades, the combined wisdom among scholars studying the South China Sea is that Itu Aba is the only island in the Spratlys.

Ian Storey
world
This would enable China to back up its warnings with real capabil... by Ian Storey

This would enable China to back up its warnings with real capabilities.

Ian Storey
industrials

But I do think it is unlikely they would stage a similar visit involving a senior political figure going to one of their own occupied islands ... that would risk inflaming relations with China and neither want to go that far.

Ian Storey
top-news

As these facilities become operational, Chinese warnings to both military and civilian aircraft will become routine, these events are a precursor to an ADIZ, or an undeclared but de facto ADIZ, and one has to expect tensions to rise.

Ian Storey
world

Other countries will use it as a stick to beat Beijing with. That's why China is so freaked by this whole issue.

Ian Storey
energy

This cannot be a one-off, the U.S. navy will have to conduct these kinds of patrols on a regular basis to reinforce their message.

Ian Storey
top-news

If naval and other ships from other countries, including the U.S. would be obliged to use and log them, it could be taken as de facto recognition of China's sovereignty.

Ian Storey
industrials

It appears the tribunal panel is bending over backwards to accommodate China's interests and appear even-handed to both the Philippines and China.

Ian Storey
top-news

It does strengthen their legal position ... because it underscores effective administration, not just military, but civilian, that would be important if these disputes ever went to the International Court of Justice.

Ian Storey
top-news

The trend is becoming clear and I don't think they (Japan) are going to back down from it, despite Chinese concerns.

Ian Storey
world

China is not overly concerned with what Taiwan is doing on Itu Aba given that it believes it will one day control these islands, beijing can live with this.

Ian Storey
industrials

Cancelling them would have created an opportunity for Beijing to strengthen its strategic ties to Bangkok, and that is clearly something that is not in Washington's interests in the context of U.S.- China competition in Southeast Asia.

Ian Storey
world