Our response has been to spend time developing an Indian Activity Index, which takes a range of time series data that in the past were strongly correlated with real GDP growth and extract the common signal from them.

Jeremy Lawson

Categorized in : Business

Our index would suggest that there was stable growth, rather than the rapid acceleration suggested by the GDP figures.

For markets the upshot is that the outlook for 2019 is looking better as tensions de-escalate, creating the potential for a re-rating of risk assets as the tail risk of a near-term trade war is partially priced out, this is especially the case in Asia.