People are getting a little bit geared up for the Fed next week. by Aaron Kohli

People are getting a little bit geared up for the Fed next week.

Aaron Kohli

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( The data) cements the view that the economy is improving despite the recent negative news from GDP.

In the last year or two, inflation break-evens were well ahead of the market in terms of looking at the global growth problems that we’ve been having.

The market is looking at different things, we've got the headline, which is a little bit softer, and the average hourly earnings that are much better.

It's hard to see anyone who is looking for inflation protection f... by Aaron Kohli

It's hard to see anyone who is looking for inflation protection for the next few years.

This negative sentiment is taking hold. It's a fever that needs t... by Aaron Kohli

This negative sentiment is taking hold. It's a fever that needs to run its course.

The market simply doesn't believe the data will be strong enough to let the Fed (boost rates) this year.

The penance for a delay of the hike is a much steeper hike...That’s the balance the market’s been playing with, the longer the Fed stays on hold, the more risk there is that factors like inflation will build up.

Right now, the market's been pricing for December and the Fed's been pushing more of a narrative that we think suggests September, so we're more likely to see the Fed converge here to the market than the other way around.

It's likely to impact yields everywhere, when you put this much stimulus into the markets, it's going to go other places that you hadn't intended, and one of those places is going to be U.S. debt.