People exaggerate their confidence in their plans - something we call the planning fallacy... The existence of the plan tends to induce overconfidence. Daniel Kahneman More Quotes by Daniel Kahneman More Quotes From Daniel Kahneman The confidence people have in their beliefs is not a measure of the quality of evidence but of the coherence of the story the mind has managed to construct. Daniel Kahneman quality mind people A reliable way to make people believe in falsehoods is frequent repetition, because familiarity is not easily distinguished from truth. Authoritarian institutions and marketers have always known this fact. Daniel Kahneman believe people way The illusion that we understand the past fosters overconfidence in our ability to predict the future. Daniel Kahneman illusion ability past We can't live in a state of perpetual doubt, so we make up the best story possible and we live as if the story were true. Daniel Kahneman states doubt stories Our comforting conviction that the world makes sense rests on a secure foundation: our almost unlimited ability to ignore our ignorance. Daniel Kahneman foundation ignorance comforting The brains of humans contain a mechanism that is designed to give priority to bad news. Daniel Kahneman priorities brain giving Every night for the next week, set aside ten minutes before you go to sleep. Write down three things that went well today and why they went well...Writing about why the positive events in your life happened may seem awkward at first, but please stick with it for one week. It will get easier. The odds are that you will be less depressed, happier, and addicted to this exercise six months from now. Daniel Kahneman exercise sleep writing People's mood is really determined primarily by their genetic make-up and personality, and in the second place by their immediate context, and only in the third and fourth place by worries and concerns and other things like that. Daniel Kahneman personality worry people Nothing in life is quite as important as you think it is while you're thinking about it. Daniel Kahneman important life-is thinking However, optimism is highly valued, socially and in the market; people and firms reward the providers of dangerously misleading information more than they reward truth tellers. One of the lessons of the financial crisis that led to the Great Recession is that there are periods in which competition, among experts and among organizations, creates powerful forces that favor a collective blindness to risk and uncertainty. Daniel Kahneman optimism powerful organization True intuitive expertise is learned from prolonged experience with good feedback on mistakes. Daniel Kahneman expertise feedback mistake Money does not buy you happiness, but lack of money certainly buys you misery. Daniel Kahneman misery doe After a crisis we tell ourselves we understand why it happened and maintain the illusion that the world is understandable. In fact, we should accept the world is incomprehensible much of the time. Daniel Kahneman illusion facts world People assign much higher probability to the truth of their opinions than is warranted. Daniel Kahneman opinion truth people We can be blind to the obvious, and we are also blind to our blindness. Daniel Kahneman obvious blindness blind An investment said to have an 80% chance of success sounds far more attractive than one with a 20% chance of failure. The mind can't easily recognize that they are the same. Daniel Kahneman chance sound mind There are domains in which expertise is not possible. Stock picking is a good example. And in long-term political strategic forecasting, it's been shown that experts are just not better than a dice-throwing monkey. Daniel Kahneman political example long We are far too willing to reject the belief that much of what we see in life is random. Daniel Kahneman rejects belief life-is I have always emphasized the willingness to discard. Daniel Kahneman willingness If there is time to reflect, slowing down is likely to be a good idea. Daniel Kahneman slow-down ifs ideas
