Nassim Nicholas Taleb: Probability and expectation are not the same. I...

Wit seduces by signaling intelligence without nerdiness.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb

nerdiness seducing wit

Cumulative errors depend largely on the big surprises, the big opportunities. Not only do economic, financial, and political predictors miss them, but they are quite ashamed to say anything outlandish to their clients and yet events, it turns out, are almost always outlandish.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb

errors political opportunity

I lift heavy weights and sprint, but I am so bad at it that I develop severe injuries.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb

injury heavy weight

What they call "play" (gym, travel, sports) looks like work.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb

play sports looks

Scepticism is effortful and costly. It is better to be sceptical about matters of large consequences, and be imperfect, foolish and human in the small and the aesthetic.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb

imperfect matter foolish

The book is the only medium left that hasn't been corrupted by the profane.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb

profane mediums book

I no longer care about the financial system. I gave them my roadmap. OK? Thanks, bye. I've no idea what's going on. I'm disconnected. I'm totally disengaged.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb

care goodbye ideas

But it remains the case that you know what is wrong with a lot more confidence than you know what is right.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb

remains cases knows

Failure saves lives. In the airline industry, every time a plane crashes the probability of the next crash is lowered by that. The Titanic saved lives because we're building bigger and bigger ships. So these people died, but we have effectively improved the safety of the system, and nothing failed in vain.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb

failure safety people

The payoff of a human venture is, in general, inversely proportional to what it is expected to be.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb

payoff venture humans

Aesthetics, ethics, and many good things in humans are contagious.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb

contagious ethics good-things

I don't read the papers; I stopped reading the papers. I read the papers only during periods of crisis, and I think papers are too long on a regular day and too short days when we have a crisis.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb

reading long thinking

Scientists may be in the business of laughing at their predecessors, but owing to an array of human mental dispositions, few realize that someone will laugh at their beliefs in the (disappointingly near) future.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb

owing may laughing

Luck is the grand equalizer.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb

equalizer luck

For many people, commuting is the worst part of the day, and policies that can make commuting shorter and more convenient would be a straightforward way to reduce minor but widespread suffering.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb

suffering would-be people

You have family-owned businesses that have been around for 500 years. You cannot name a corporation that survives intact for even a few decades.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb

corporations names years

When you write, you don't have the social constraints of having people in front of you, so you talk about abstract matters.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb

matter writing people

Don't read newspapers for the news (just for the gossip and, of course, profiles of authors). The best filter to know if the news matters is if you hear it in cafes, restaurants... or (again) parties.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb

filters gossip party

A good maxim allows you to have the last word without even starting a conversation.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb

starting lasts conversation

A prophet is not someone with special visions, just someone blind to most of what others see

Nassim Nicholas Taleb

vision blind special

Probability and expectation are not the same. Its probability and probability times the pay off.