The attractions of the more defensive or stable parts in equities... by Goldman Sachs

The attractions of the more defensive or stable parts in equities are clear.

Goldman Sachs

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We think the prime minister will re-engage in Brexit negotiations with the EU, aiming to confront MPs in late October with a binary choice between a Brexit deal and a pre-Brexit general election.

The fact that the White House has increased the tariff rate suggests that the probability has risen that tariffs will increase on the remaining roughly $ 300 billion in imports from China that the US has not yet targeted.

In our view, OPEC's strategy is to rebalance the market as quickly as possible and exit the cuts by the end of June in order to grow production alongside shale producers in the second half of this year.

Against this backdrop we do not believe the Fed's objection on qualitative grounds will come as a surprise to market participants.

Saturday's OPEC+ press conference provided more clarity on the decision to increase production, with guidance for a full 1 million bpd ramp-up in 2H18, this is a larger increase than presented Friday although the goal remains to stabilize inventories, not generate a surplus.

We began our discussions at a time when the prevailing view was that the 'Remain' campaign would succeed, an outcome we would have preferred and publicly supported.

If sustainable, this ceasefire would pave the way for higher output, with the government optimistically aiming for a return to normal production by end-July.

We believe the current decline in U.S. oil production is still insufficient to offset low-cost supply growth such as Iran, particularly should disruptions in Iraq, Nigeria and Venezuela reverse, the biggest risk to the upside in the near term is the Fed choosing to remain dovish despite the improvement in Chinese activity, which could easily push oil above $50.

Given the challenging market backdrop, we expect the stable AUM (assets under management) and positive flow trends reported by Man Group in 1Q16 to reassure investors.

Shale productivity gains remain a key driver of our long-term deflationary outlook for oil prices, our analysis of shale productivity... (are) broadly in line with our expectations for 3 percent to 10 percent yoy (year-on-year) increases.

Shale productivity gains remain a key driver of our long-term deflationary outlook for oil prices, our analysis of shale productivity... (is) broadly in line with our expectations for 3 percent to 10 percent yoy (year-on-year) increases.

We continue to view a coordinated production cut as highly unlikely and ultimately self-defeating, despite the sharp bounce in oil prices, we do not expect such a cut will occur unless global growth weakens sharply from current levels, which is not our economists' forecast.

With more outlets including storage, excess production can be maintained on a longer time horizon before surpluses saturate markets and breach logistical and storage constraints.

While the scale of recent price action is alarming, the story is not a new one, the broader concerns are a continuation of a theme that has been running for some time: China weakness, the industrial slowdown and collapsing commodity prices.

If the global economic expansion continues, as we expect, then rising investment demand will eventually expose the market consequences of ebbing petrodollar saving flows.

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Whether in autos, capital goods, basic materials, or utilities, both the opportunities and risks associated with spreading low carbon technologies and tightening emissions regulations have become too big to ignore.

Distillate storage utilization in the U.S. and Europe is nearing historically high levels, following near record refinery utilization, only modest demand growth (especially relative to gasoline), and increased imports from the East on refinery expansion and Chinese exports, this raises the spectre of 1998 (and) 2009 when distillate storage hit capacity, pushing runs and crude oil prices sharply lower.

In a strategic decision, the firm will now expand its footprint in Warsaw. The expansion will be realized in a phased approach over the next three years.

The (yuan) devaluation has been important for commodity markets and we believe it signals that global macro conditions have changed, even China has now joined the negative feedback loop that is running between commodity deflation, growth and deleveraging trends ... We believe the net commodity market effects are bearish.

The CNY( yuan) devaluation has been important for commodity markets and we believe it signals that global macro conditions have changed, even China has now joined the negative feedback loop that is running between commodity deflation, growth and deleveraging trends...( and) we believe the net commodity market effects are bearish.