The battle is only going to intensify with the return of Iranian barrels from the second half of 2016.

Virendra Chauhan

Categorized in : Energy

The fund community faded the attack last week on the assumption that supply would return very quickly, but the reality is likely to be different.

Virendra Chauhan

I would expect oil to trade in a relatively tight band around $70 per for the time being, leading edge indicators on U.S. supply suggest activity levels are stepping up, which is supportive for strong production growth in the second half.

Virendra Chauhan

The physical market is very strong and we are now starting to trade post-turnaround barrels, which should mean physical markets strengthen and flat prices should follow.

Virendra Chauhan

For WTI (U.S. light crude) there is tightness at Cushing, which will be supportive over July and August.

Virendra Chauhan

For WTI there is tightness at Cushing, which will be supportive o... by Virendra Chauhan

For WTI there is tightness at Cushing, which will be supportive over July and August.

Virendra Chauhan

Cushing is clearly screaming out for crude. by Virendra Chauhan

Cushing is clearly screaming out for crude.

Virendra Chauhan

This is the teapot effect, higher teapot demand and stronger refining margins which encouraged higher refinery throughputs have contributed to increased imports.

Virendra Chauhan

Higher teapot demand and stronger refining margins which encouraged higher refinery throughputs have contributed to increased imports, falling domestic crude production is also supportive.

Virendra Chauhan

We think low $30's (per barrel) is a floor, but once positioning... by Virendra Chauhan

We think low $30's (per barrel) is a floor, but once positioning gets so biased anything can happen.

Virendra Chauhan

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The move with WTI trading above Brent is not fundamentally justified. It is overdone and you are likely to see some correction in that when markets return to some kind of normality in terms of volumes.

Virendra Chauhan

Inventories remain very, very high relative to the previous year... by Virendra Chauhan

Inventories remain very, very high relative to the previous year and relative to the five-year norm.

Virendra Chauhan

Iran was a key supplier to India pre-sanctions. I think that's where the interesting battle will play out between Iran and Iraq.

Virendra Chauhan

With China decisively moving away from an industrial focus to consumer growth, there is little reason to be bullish long-term for metals.

Virendra Chauhan

Saudi Arabia's strategy of targeting market share amongst key Asian consumers remains at play, it's a buyers' market at the moment so Saudi will be looking to place its barrels aggressively or risk losing out.

Virendra Chauhan

We see 10-10.1 million bpd as the new norm for Saudi production given that more crude will be consumed domestically with the two new refineries ramping up to capacity.

Virendra Chauhan

I think even Saudi Arabia doesn't know yet whether a cut can be a... by Virendra Chauhan

I think even Saudi Arabia doesn't know yet whether a cut can be achieved.

Virendra Chauhan