The economy is almost in free fall, we will see the bottom when the coronavirus infection rates stabilize. It's going to be a pretty deep bottom from which to come up.

Sung Won Sohn

I think we should know about candidates desires and views, but I think it would be a mistake to assume that they will become reality.

mistake reality thinking

I think the concern over rising interest rates is ahead of itself because I think inflationary fears themselves might be premature.

rising might thinking

The economy has settled into a sustainable, self-reinforcing growth path, .. All major categories of the economy have contributed to economic growth. Now that businesses have begun to add to payrolls, the current expansion is self-reinforcing. Only external shocks, such as terrorist attacks or a surge in oil prices, could derail the recovery.

recovery oil self

The interim trade deal with China is really a stop-gap measure, trump, facing a tough reelection battle wants to show some progress and China needs to boost its economy. The real hard work is ahead.

Given the uncertainty in the economy, businesses are very cautious about spending in construction as well as equipment, and this is not a very good sign, after all, businesses are the ones hiring people, providing income and the buying power for consumers.

The Fed will have to cut interest rates again probably in October or December, the Fed is the only game in town to support the flagging economy.

The key to future economic growth is business spending. Evidently, businesses do not share the ebullience consumers have, this is not a good sign for the economy because there would be fewer jobs for consumers. For this reason, the Fed will cut rates next week.

There is no inflationary pressure coming from the labor side, it is hard to explain why wage gains are so slow in the current labor market.

Slower, but moderate economic growth is continuing and we might see some slight acceleration as we head into second quarter.

Up until now we have had people rejoining the labor force, which allowed businesses to hire people, especially at the unskilled and semi-skilled level, there are signs that well could be running dry.

There is a very low probability of a massive recession, less than 10 percent, if it happens, it would be because of what is happening overseas, especially in China and Europe.

A mid-year lift-off in the interest rate is fait accompli ... the... by Sung Won Sohn

A mid-year lift-off in the interest rate is fait accompli ... there was good news on many fronts.

We are seeing the labor market high on PPP money, once it runs out we might see a significant increase in layoffs again.

Once the PPP money runs out, there could be another round of layoffs especially in services which was a big beneficiary of the government program.

We pretty much know April was a disaster. The question is as the lockdowns ease in May and June, what segments of retail sales are going to be coming back and what are not coming back at all, all indications are the recovery is going to be slower and gradual, if we have one.

The economy is almost in free fall.

They'll have to cut back their spending immediately. That has a significant multiplying effect throughout the world.

I don't think the worst is behind us in terms of the economic impact. The worst is yet to come.

Lower income workers will be hit harder, they'll have to cut back their spending immediately. That has a significant multiplying effect throughout the world.