The effort invested in 'getting it right' should be commensurate with the importance of the decision. Daniel Kahneman More Quotes by Daniel Kahneman More Quotes From Daniel Kahneman Finally, the illusions of validity and skill are supported by a powerful professional culture. We know that people can maintain an unshakeable faith in any proposition, however absurd, when they are sustained by a community of like-minded believers. Given the professional culture of the financial community, it is not surprising that large numbers of individuals in that world believe themselves to be among the chosen few who can do what they believe others cannot. Daniel Kahneman powerful skills believe Most of the moments of our life - and I calculated, you know, the psychological present is said to be about three seconds long; that means that, you know, in a life there are about 600 million of them; in a month, there are about 600,000 - most of them don't leave a trace. Daniel Kahneman three long mean It's not a case of: 'Read this book and then you'll think differently. I've written this book, and I don't think differently. Daniel Kahneman cases book thinking Economists think about what people ought to do. Psychologists watch what they actually do. Daniel Kahneman watches people thinking The amount of success it takes for leaders to become overconfident isn't terribly large. Daniel Kahneman overconfident amount leader To know whether you can trust a particular intuitive judgment, there are two questions you should ask: Is the environment in which the judgment is made sufficiently regular to enable predictions from the available evidence? The answer is yes for diagnosticians, no for stock pickers. Do the professionals have an adequate opportunity to learn the cues and the regularities? The answer here depends on the professionals' experience and on the quality and speed with which they discover their mistakes. Daniel Kahneman mistake opportunity two I would not advise people to buy a car or house without making a list. You will probably improve your intuitions by making a list and then sleeping on it. Daniel Kahneman car sleep people A plan is only a scenario, and almost by definition, it is optimistic... As a result, scenario planning can lead to a serious underestimate of the risk of failure. Daniel Kahneman optimistic definitions risk People are really happier with friends than they are with their families or their spouse or their child. Daniel Kahneman spouse children people The planning fallacy is that you make a plan, which is usually a best-case scenario. Then you assume that the outcome will follow your plan, even when you should know better. Daniel Kahneman planning assuming outcomes People have little idea, by and large, of the investment world. They are convinced they have an advantage. Daniel Kahneman money people ideas When you analyze happiness, it turns out that the way you spend your time is extremely important. Daniel Kahneman turns important way Intelligence is not only the ability to reason; it is also the ability to find relevant material in memory and to deploy attention when needed. Daniel Kahneman reason attention memories People like leaders who look like they are dominant, optimistic, friendly to their friends, and quick on the trigger when it comes to enemies. They like boldness and despise the appearance of timidity and protracted doubt. Daniel Kahneman optimistic leader people The average investor's return is significantly lower than market indices due primarily to market timing. Daniel Kahneman timing return average Clearly, the decision-making that we rely on in society is fallible. It's highly fallible, and we should know that. Daniel Kahneman rely decision should People tend to assess the relative importance of issues by the ease with which they are retrieved from memory—and this is largely determined by the extent of coverage in the media. Frequently mentioned topics populate the mind even as others slip away from awareness. In turn, what the media choose to report corresponds to their view of what is currently on the public’s mind. It is no accident that authoritarian regimes exert substantial pressure on independent media. Because public interest is most easily aroused by dramatic events and by celebrities, media feeding frenzies are common Daniel Kahneman independent views memories One of the problems with expertise is that people have it in some domains and not in others. Daniel Kahneman domain problem people The brain scientists are the wave of the future in the financial world. If you seek to maximize understanding, whether you're in academia or in the investment community, you'd better pay serious attention to them. Daniel Kahneman community money understanding A general “law of least effort” applies to cognitive as well as physical exertion. The law asserts that if there are several ways of achieving the same goal, people will eventually gravitate to the least demanding course of action. In the economy of action, effort is a cost, and the acquisition of skill is driven by the balance of benefits and costs. Laziness is built deep into our nature. Daniel Kahneman skills law people
