The escalating The US-China trade war will certainly be bad for the The Chamber of Commerce economy. How bad is almost impossible to calculate.

Art Hogan

Categorized in : Top News

The fact we are having rotations is healthy because that just means we are not glued to what has been working in 2019, as consumer discretionary goes through that mini-rotation, it probably comes out of it and next week is probably that catalyst to at least see what has been overdone on the downside here.

If you back the lens up and say 'How has consumer discretionary done for the whole year and when did it top out?', it topped out right when we started to cycle into the things that hadn't been working.

A crescendo of bad news can move an economy driven by the consumer, is this something that causes people to put off buying that sweater, fridge or car ?

Historically, recessions occur in reaction to a monetary policy mistake. This is the first time we may have to deal with a trade policy miscalculation.

If you inject uncertainty during back-to-school and holiday shopping, that will have a drag on the economy.

We're in a waiting game, neither side wants this to continue much longer. The Chinese economy is slipping and the president wants a victory. Both sides are motivated to resolve this.

Today is a microcosm of what we've had all week : mixed messages, every message has contradicted itself.

We've gotten a hodge-podge of mixed messages from people in the s... by Art Hogan

We've gotten a hodge-podge of mixed messages from people in the same administration.

This kind of washout doesn't get accomplished in a day. Even though yesterday felt traumatic, it tends to be a three-day process.

Considering the magnitude of headwinds that we face in trade, it appears as though it has been relatively 'extra Dow' and that's because Dow companies are more heavily impacted due to strong dollar and trade talks.

You've got a little bit of a shift away from the macro concerns which will continue to be a headwind for this market until we get some answers on trade. Right now the focus is on M&A.

That will be bullish for any of the suppliers to ZTE, but more importantly bullish for any deal stocks waiting for regulatory approval.

We had a significant run up of late and it takes pretty significa... by Art Hogan

We had a significant run up of late and it takes pretty significant catalysts to move us higher.

Operationally, Wells Fargo can recover, but reputationally and how a billion dollars will weigh on them - only time can tell.

The economic data until last week had been pretty decent but since the GDP numbers came out, we're seeing holes in the argument that the second half of the year is going to be better.

At these valuations, the market is desperate for a catalyst to mo... by Art Hogan

At these valuations, the market is desperate for a catalyst to move higher.

We saw a significant beat from JPMorgan and that's helping the psychology of the market, with the weaker dollar helping commodities and better-than-expected economic data, the market is taking the path of least resistance with an upward bias.

The equity market is telling you the second quarter economy looks... by Art Hogan

The equity market is telling you the second quarter economy looks better than the first quarter.

The old high has been resistance and if you break it and see earnings growth and relatively good guidance, people will probably try to get in front of that.

The selloff last week was an over reaction and the attempted rally was too fast and furious, i think the compression of time and speed of Wunderlich Equity Capital Markets causes the pendulum to swing too far on every move we make.