The geopolitical risk is not something to write off. by Olivier Jakob

The geopolitical risk is not something to write off.

Olivier Jakob

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Categorized in : Energy

The interruption from Kurdistan is significant because they were a big part of the increase in exports from Iraq, it is prompt supplies and these are large volumes.

The lifting of the ban on U.S. exports will provide some underlying support for U.S. crude. Oil demand in 2015 was exceptionally high and at current prices, demand is going to remain strong next year, for now, there is still an ample supply of crude and a huge amount in storage.

We read any lifting of the US export ban as a significant structural change...Lifting the ban could help to clear US crude oil stocks.

There is likely to be a risk premium for the long Thanksgiving we... by Olivier Jakob

There is likely to be a risk premium for the long Thanksgiving weekend.

Genscape is forecasting a large stock draw in Cushing, the supply and demand numbers suggest that the low oil prices are starting to have an impact on U.S. crude oil production growth.

Yesterday the market got somewhat excited by the editorial of the OPEC Bulletin, this was read by some market participants as making a first overture for a change of policy.

Volatility was high last week, so now we're seeing some retracement - $50 is proving to be a resistance level, it is still a market which is very well supplied.

The latest move means that when they are eventually lifted, Swiss companies will be able to act immediately, it puts Swiss companies and companies based here in the starting blocks.

The Sea King is part of the reason Brent is sinking, this is not a usual move and does not bode well for North Sea crude oil that has been relying on shipments to Asia to clear the overhang that was visible during June.

If you look at (inventories) there's been a pretty big build and also a build in gasoline (stockpiles) that is going to add a bit of pressure today.

U.S. crude oil stocks are still at a high level and at risk of seeing increasing builds once refineries go into maintenance in the fall.

Uncertainty over Greece is bearish for oil. It adds an extra negative factor on top of the turmoil in Chinese financial markets, the recent rise in U.S. drilling rigs, and a potential increase in Iranian oil supply, the main implication is for euro/dollar and I think it will put additional pressure on the euro.

There has been some underlying growth of demand. But the supply response has been greater, demand needs to increase more to absorb.

Greece is an additional risk factor, but I am more focused on Vienna than on Athens right now, the API showed a crude oil stock increase, so more bearish than the consensus.

There's a lot of crude oil that's trying to find a home ... That limits the potential for a crude oil rally and puts pressure on the price.

You have a considerable build in the U.S., there has been a lot of waiting and hoping for the first drop of stocks in Cushing and that has not happened yet.

Some have described the OPEC November meeting as the death of OPEC and it is true that the lifting of sanctions on Iran will create a major issue for Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the UAE, they already have an issue with Iraq increasing production and they will now have to face Iran that will consider itself, like Iraq, not bound by any quota for many years.

The comments yesterday, the change of tone from Saudi Arabia, is still an element, the market is still reacting to that.

The low oil prices are forcing a reduction of drilling rigs in the U.S. but also of budgets in oil-exporting countries, libya is already mostly out in terms of production. Libya and Yemen are getting closer to the day of outside military intervention.

With Fatih the IEA is likely to be more outspoken. by Olivier Jakob

With Fatih the IEA is likely to be more outspoken.