The housing market started 2022 on a strong note, mBA expects solid growth in purchase activity this year, as demographic drivers and the strong economy support housing demand. However, the strength in growth will be dependent on housing inventory growing more rapidly to meet demand.

Joel Kan

Higher mortgage rates... have contributed to more homebuyers staying on the sidelines.

Home purchase applications continued to be held down by rapidly drying up demand, as high mortgage rates, challenging affordability, and a gloomier outlook of the economy kept buyers on the sidelines.

Increased economic uncertainty and prevalent affordability challenges are dissuading households from entering the market, leading to declining purchase activity that is close to lows last seen at the onset of the pandemic.

The weakening economic outlook, high inflation, and persistent affordability challenges are impacting buyer demand.

Purchase applications were down compared to last year, as ongoing inventory shortages and affordability challenges have cooled demand, coinciding with the rapid jump in mortgage rates.

Purchase applications, already constrained by elevated sales prices and tight inventory, have also been impacted by these higher rates and declined for the third straight week.

Higher mortgage rates have quickly shut off refinances, with activity down in six of the first seven weeks of 2022, purchase applications, already constrained by elevated sales prices and tight inventory, have also been impacted by these higher rates and declined for the third straight week.

Prospective buyers still face elevated sales prices in addition to higher mortgage rates.

Refinance demand continues to dwindle, as many borrowers refinanced in 2020, and in early 2021, when mortgage rates were around 40 basis points lower.

Inventories are lower, especially for lower-priced homes, and prices are continuing to rise at about a 15 % annualized rate, forecasts have price increases falling into the single digits next year, but the fundamentals of low supply, high demand and rising consumer wealth don't appear to be easing anytime soon.

Buyers continued to snap up available homes, as for-sale listings only lasted 18 days on the market, this swift competition continues to exert upward pressure on sales prices, overall home price growth, and is impacting prospective first-time buyers.

We continue to expect weakening refinance activity as rates move higher and borrowers see less of a rate incentive.

Existing-home sales continue to be weighed down by rising prices and low inventory, sales in May fell for the fourth-straight month to the slowest annual pace since June 2020. However, housing demand is still very strong. Even with this declining trend, sales last month were still much higher than in May 2019.

In the short-term, inventory shortages will persist, the insufficient level of inventory amidst fierce competition is putting upward pressure on home prices in most parts of the country.

More acute affordability challenges will emerge if inventory stays this tight and home-price growth continues to accelerate, this, in turn, would be especially challenging for first-time homebuyers, who make up a third of all home sales.

Investors are contemplating the risks of the recent resurgence of Covid-19 cases to the labor market and economy, and Treasury rates and mortgage rates are moving lower as a result, the weakening in activity is potentially a signal that pent-up demand is starting to wane and that low housing supply is limiting prospective buyers' options.