The initial optimism of early this year is starting to dissipate because of the prospects of tighter pandemic restrictions for longer, and concerns over ‘vaccine nationalism’.

Michael Hewson

If MPs do hold their noses and vote for the deal, at least we can move on to phase 2 which is negotiating the new relationship over the next 14-month transition period.

Investors are slowly realizing that with every spin of the central bank policy chamber the magazine is getting emptier, the larger concern here given recent market reaction to policy moves by central bankers is that policymakers are losing the confidence of investors.

Coming up to the Easter holiday, people are going to be very reluctant to put more money into these (stock) markets. If anything, they will be more likely to take money out, anything like the events we're seeing in Brussels this morning is going to weigh on risk sentiment and risk appetite.

Anything like the events we're seeing in Brussels this morning is going to weigh on risk sentiment and risk appetite, coming up to the Easter holiday, people are going to be very reluctant to put more money into these (stock) markets. If anything, they will be more likely to take money out.

We have seen a positive open in Europe, though that looks likely to be put to the test if Asia's market performance is any guide, it's encouraging that, so far at least, European markets are shrugging off Asia's losses.

There are rising stockpiles and the tension between Iran and Saudi Arabia make any deal on production unlikely.

Shale production and increasing capacity from countries like Russia who need to protect revenue combined with expectations of further Iranian supply mean actual production as well as expectations of future production are rising.

It's a glimmer, and for now we're consolidating above $40 per barrel. But OPEC showed last week it's a paper tiger in that it won't do anything to prevent supply growth.

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Investors paid the price of an ECB President (Mario Draghi) who over-promised in his recent rhetoric and under-delivered, this brings us to today's U.S. employment report for November. We would need a number below 100,000 for the market to wobble in its belief in a Fed move this month.

Continued expectation of easier central bank policy has helped underpin equity markets after a turbulent few months, investors are veering between confidence that the U.S. economy is still performing well enough to withstand a rate rise, to an expectation that if it's not, the Fed will remain on hold.

We have seen a late recovery in Asia that has largely been as a result of some late state intervention in Chinese markets to help keep a floor under stocks.

There has been a poor session in Asia and I don't think investors are getting involved ... Basic inertia and low volumes are dragging markets lower.

Oil prices are looking a bit softer, there is a good chance we ca... by Michael Hewson

Oil prices are looking a bit softer, there is a good chance we can see an increase to production.

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Markets are trying to digest what is going on in Spain and what it means for Greece, anti-austerity parties in Spain have been giving the incumbent government a kicking ... That's keeping investors on the back foot.

(There is) some concern that the recent recovery seen in some of the Q1 data could start to plateau in Q2.

Some of that (bullish) heat looks set to tail off a little today. by Michael Hewson

Some of that (bullish) heat looks set to tail off a little today.

The main speculation now is likely to be around the flavour of any ECB action at Thursday's meeting, european markets have started a new week on the front foot increasingly confident that the ECB will announce a bond buying program. This is being reflected in early trading by new record lows in European yields and fresh all-time highs in the German DAX.

An extremely positive number could cause some ripples, particularly given the timing of a Fed rate hike, as it would suggest that any slack in the US labour market could disappear faster than anticipated.

I still think that the Greek exit scenario is an outlier, any sensible strategy would be to plan for the worst and hope for the best.

I think the UK is in recession already.