The latest data should partially ease concerns about a sharp slowdown at the start of the year. But the near-term outlook still looks downbeat. Capital Economics More Quotes by Capital Economics More Quotes From Capital Economics The fact that they have now stopped defending 7.00 against the dollar suggests that they have all but abandoned hopes for a trade deal with the U.S.. Capital Economics top-news This will further weigh on the economy. Capital Economics world Both fiscal and monetary policy have been loosened over the past few months and this should start to feed through to the real economy by the second half of this year. Capital Economics top-news Neither side will be brought to its knees – which is one reason to think the trade dispute could drag on, for China's part, its leaders will be determined not to be seen to back down to foreign pressure. Capital Economics top-news We don't expect this to last, there is a lot of speculation in the market. Capital Economics company-news This is mostly linked to fears that the wage negotiations at Escondida will turn into a prolonged strike, and therefore there will be some loss in output. Capital Economics company-news Our forecasts suggest that most prices will fall from here. Capital Economics company-news The benefits, however, may not materialize until well into next year. Capital Economics company-news Our sense is that the authorities will allow the currency to fall to around this level quickly. Capital Economics company-news Even if it does take Iran a year or more to return output and exports to pre-sanctions levels, the anticipation of this additional supply should still affect prices now, the prospect of another 1 million bpd increase in supply from Iran ... could easily drag prices below $60 again. Capital Economics energy Presumably any worries about the effect of the Greek crisis on the German economy were offset by expectations of ECB quantitative easing and hopes of a boost to exports from the weakening euro. Capital Economics energy In good times, the oil price soared and they had to spend money on subsidies, which resulted in a big budget deficit, which is the opposite of what you want to happen, hopefully now they'll be able to manage fiscal policy in a much more sensible way. Capital Economics energy The central bank never really knew how to respond, sometimes it would raise interest rates aggressively, other times it wouldn't. Capital Economics energy Things have undoubtedly got considerably worse since November, but this is yet to be reflected in hard data. Capital Economics energy There are early hopes that worst of the currency crisis is over. Capital Economics company-news
