The major catalyst for growth during the third quarter will almost certainly be a strong period of inventory building ahead of the traditional holiday shopping season.

Joe Brusuelas

This is as good as it gets for the first Trump administration. by Joe Brusuelas

This is as good as it gets for the first Trump administration.

business

The tax cut was not a game changer, it did not result in a permanent lifting of the trajectory of growth, just a temporary increase.

business

The uncertainty tax that we have now mostly has to do with trade, you add a layer of lack of data on top of that, then you start to run into problems.

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Because we're already experiencing heightened volatility, this just adds another combustible element into the mix.

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This would cause the Federal Reserve to quicken the pace of its policy normalization. You would hear more about a 50-basis point increase.

Heating the home and putting gasoline in the car will become more expensive in the immediate aftermath of a Russian invasion.

We're talking about a real short-term shock.

The pandemic remains the single largest potential disruptor of the domestic and global economy.

We expect a return to form for the American consumer in the final quarter of the year.

This is what happens after great wars or depressions, it's hard to spot while you're in it, but we've gone through a shock that has elicited an unexpected change upon the population. And it will take some time to sort through.

In my estimation this agreement represents a rare opportunity to lift the long term growth path of the economy, productivity and the living standards of individual Americans.

The middle market is signaling to the political authority that we need to improve overall efficiency and productivity because the roads, bridges, waterways and conditions of broadband technology are holding us back, we need to invest in the future.

This is not the time to tighten the belt. The economy is in no condition for austerity.

Americans are behaving in an eminently rational fashion.

That's bad news for the economy, uncle Sam want a confident consumer to expense her income. We're just not seeing that right now.

This is exactly the wrong move at the wrong time. We're inching toward the same mistakes we made during the Great Depression.

I give The Trump administration high marks on the first rounds of aid, but the threat of sparking a transatlantic trade war is not in the spirit of what they've done since the beginning of the pandemic.

For many of us, Smoot-Hawley was a joke in' Ferris Bueller's Day Off.' This is not a joke. This is very serious, it would be a significant policy error that would put at risk the nascent recovery.

This a robust first step towards providing a lending facility that will stem what was a likely solvency crisis inside the critical small and medium-size commercial community.