The market was surprised by the result, so there was a strong knee-jerk reaction yesterday, but it has adjusted for the surprise now. Cristian Maggio More Quotes by Cristian Maggio More Quotes From Cristian Maggio The inflation print yesterday was atrocious...and the worst part of the story is that this isn't the end of the up move part of the inflation cycle in Turkey, bad inflation translates into a negative lira reaction, which translates into faster inflation, and that becomes a self-reinforcing loop. Cristian Maggio company-news The (central bank) may have been wary of a repeat of an August 2015 situation when the market just collapsed after the PBOC allowed a depreciation of about 2.5 percent in a single day, so the move today is a subtle signal that that's not what's going to happen, and the market seems to have taken this signal - at least on the currency side - as a positive, risk-on move. Cristian Maggio company-news The central bank will have to step in at this point, the problem with Turkey is that the independence of monetary policy has been largely compromised by the way the politics works. Cristian Maggio company-news We are still in the midst of a potential downside adjustment in prices for emerging markets and risk assets in general. Cristian Maggio company-news With the risk of further downgrades, this sector will be under pressure, which will likely trigger big outflows and put more pressure on the currency. Cristian Maggio company-news As the macroeconomic environment deteriorates - and it will deteriorate as that is an unavoidable consquence of falling foreign direct investment and tourism - you will see more reluctance to invest in Turkish securities. Cristian Maggio company-news Easing (by BOE) will be a sign that there is a willingness from major central banks to support growth in the midst of growing uncertainties and that will translate into positive performance for emerging markets, it's liquidity that's being generated elsewhere, part of which will be moving to emerging markets. Cristian Maggio company-news The markets recovered, the calendar is pretty empty, and the market is just waiting for the referendum to be cleared as a source of risk, so everything is leaning in the direction of 'wait and see' until next week. Cristian Maggio company-news The market doesn't have many chances to be surprised on the positive side. Cristian Maggio company-news The market is just extending the moves we saw prevailing last week which were in a positive direction. Cristian Maggio company-news The odds that Rousseff will continue to the end of her mandate have fallen below 50 percent and the market is very happy about it. Cristian Maggio company-news This is just an extension of the bull move after the very bad start to the year, what really matters to the market at the moment is what is implied by a potential Fed hike ... If the Fed hikes it's because the economy in the U.S. and therefore the global economy is not doing as badly as previously thought. That's positive news for emerging markets. Cristian Maggio company-news The China data in the best case is neutral so the rebound in oil is probably the more relevant factor. Cristian Maggio company-news We expect the central bank to increase expected inflation for 2016 and 2017 and that is probably going to have immediate implications for its January meeting. Cristian Maggio company-news That move was anticipated by markets, Russia was expected to follow through on it, it is something that is still developing - there is a lot at stake. In this context, Turkey has more to lose from this situation than Russia has. Cristian Maggio company-news We are going into the most uncertain month of the year, and probably of the past several years. Cristian Maggio company-news The market is waiting for the Fed's first move, we need to see that move before the market can take a direction - we should expect a lot of volatility between now and then. Cristian Maggio company-news I don't see anything particularly significant at this stage that justifies the extension of the rally. Cristian Maggio company-news The Chinese rate cut on Friday hasn't produced a very positive effect on emerging markets, the People's Bank of China mentioned a few things that unsettled markets, so the market is focusing again on the possible downside risks to Chinese growth. Cristian Maggio company-news Pegs are sustainable only as long as you run a big current account surplus and there are inflows that allow central banks to support their currencies. Cristian Maggio business
