The most significant move we've seen in the last 24 hours are signs of weakness in the dollar - maybe the market is taking a pause after the big moves we had in the wake of (U.S.) non-farm payrolls, it's too early to say there has been a change in market sentiment ... But we have gone to some extreme levels and this retracement is normal.

Murat Toprak

Categorized in : Company News

We see a bit of pressure because what has happened in Belgium ... overall emerging markets have performed quite well in the past few weeks, that also explains the consolidation today.

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We think (a cut) would be unwise at this stage - Turkey is facing some inflation issues, the good performance of the lira is also a function of the carry, and maintaining a carry is a good thing for the lira and the a good thing for inflation.

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The weakness in the Turkish market is clearly related to what is going on in Syria, the tensions between Turkey and Russia and the terrorist attacks - the underperformance can only be explained by this factor.

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We don't want to be buyers of EM currencies at this juncture, if we look at the rouble or the rand, those currencies remain quite fragile, very dependent on oil or what the central banks will do this week.

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Overall EM remains quite fragile - it is very difficult to draw conclusions on the swing that we had at the end of last week which was driven partly by the ECB's very dovish stance.

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What has created a bit of volatility is maybe some changing in the wording of the government programme with regards to the central bank mandate that has triggered that question mark in the market, these sort of questions linger for a long time in the market.

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It's not very surprising to see this risk-off action, if they don't hike because the U.S. economy is weak, how can this be positive for the global economy and emerging markets? That explains the fragile market sentiment.

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Even if we put aside the Fed, we still have this political uncertainty and we are seeing an inertia in monetary policy, historically ... we have seen the central bank be a bit more active when the currency falls, but despite the record lows for the Turkish lira, the reaction of the central bank has been extremely limited.

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