The only way to beat Rafa on clay is to take risks... to over-achieve you have to over-play and risk more than you feel comfortable doing, if Thiem can do that and build enough hope in the first hour, hour and a half, maybe get the first set he can make it physical like he did in Madrid. I'm not sure if Thiem and Rafa had a run in the Bois de Boulogne that Rafa would win.

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