The pace of slowdown in fixed-asset investment is relatively fast - dragged by the property sector, while the factory sector remains sluggish, overall, the economy is very weak and the central bank may have to continue cutting interest rates and banks' reserve requirement.

Zhou Hao

Categorized in : Business

The electricity production remained sluggish and the crude steel output continued the weak trend in January, reflecting an ongoing deleveraging process in the industrial sectors, in the meantime, China has started an aggressive capacity reduction in many sectors, which could add downward pressure on the bulk commodity prices over time.

While headline growth looks fine, the breakdown of the figures points to overall weakness in the economy, all in all, we believe that China will experience a 'bumpy landing' in the coming year.

The hurdle is very clear: how to encourage the low income group to purchase property - to improve affordability.

If the onshore-offshore spread is too wide, China will lose credibility after joining the SDR; it will have two currencies.

Many traditionally reliable indicators such as power output and rail freight have shown a serious deviation from GDP growth, nobody knows what’s the real economic growth.

People are concerned because in developed economies, generally, government intervention is very scary, this is a kind of different mindset between different regulators in different countries. From a Westerner's viewpoint it's very risky.

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If the CNH liquidity in the offshore market continues to tighten, we could see further capital outflows from mainland China, maybe at the end of the day, China will have only two options: one is to put more control on the capital account; second is to let the currency go.

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Policy focus is definitely the (producer) deflation at this stage... by Zhou Hao

Policy focus is definitely the (producer) deflation at this stage.

From a fairness point of view, policies need to be kept a secret because there is definitely a first-mover's advantage in the short-term.

Demand for commodities has been hit hard by the slowdown in the property sector and this has exacerbated the supply glut that we're seeing for many industries, especially for steel, iron ore and coal.

I don't think the interest rate cut will have a huge impact on the real economy. The biggest problems are still weak demand and tight credit.