The plausible partial lifting of European Union sanctions at the end of this year is consistent with debt capital markets becoming accessible again by non-sanctioned Russian issuers in the second half of the year, investors will no longer worry that companies who are not now sanctioned may suddenly appear on some new sanctions list in the near future.

Christopher Granville

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The national savings buffers are worth around 6.5 percent of GDP at present and that's the basis of saying they will run out of cash by the middle of next year - unless the oil price goes up, but to eke out the buffers until the election will require meaningful spending cuts now... Desperate times call for desperate measures.

Christopher Granville
business

My prediction would be that both the funds would be fully drawn down between now and the 2018 election - leaving Russia at the mercy (after that) of the markets, that will require another round of yet more painful decisions. But they will face those over the hump of the political cycle, with no more elections.

Christopher Granville
energy
They are going to do the minimum necessary. by Christopher Granville

They are going to do the minimum necessary.

Christopher Granville
energy

The only way to achieve spending cuts that will move the needle will be to attack these favoured areas of spending - which is pensions first and foremost.

Christopher Granville
energy

What the central bank is doing is in line with what the leadership wants, in a strategic way, Stability is the absolute top priority, rather than avoiding negative growth at all costs.

Christopher Granville
business

There is a tension between the government and the central bank as regards growth. The effect of these stabilization policies is going to be to deepen the recession.

Christopher Granville
business