The revelations, pronouncements and 'tests' appear to be part of a campaign to establish the narrative that Pyongyang has, or will soon have, a nuclear-armed, long-range missile that could threaten the U.S. mainland, each unveiling, if real, would be part of a structured program aimed at developing the capability. The open question is: How real are these tests?

Michael Elleman

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This missile is far more capable than its predecessor, this missile, because it is so much larger and has twice the thrust capability, it is easy to conclude that it can carry a payload of 750 kg [1,653 pounds] to 1000 kg [2,200 pounds], or even more.

Michael Elleman

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North Korea can certainly make a warhead small enough to fall under that. This missile has the capability to hit anywhere in the U.S. in principle.

Michael Elleman

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Given that this test failed, North Korea might elect to conduct a... by Michael Elleman

Given that this test failed, North Korea might elect to conduct another nuclear test.

Michael Elleman

I suspect the aim of the launch was to repeat the success, which itself provides considerable engineering knowledge.

Michael Elleman

Sanctions raise the cost and impact reliability, but a determined country can access the needed items if it is a priority acquisition.

Michael Elleman

The Houthis themselves are not yet well-trained enough to fire a missile like that. The skill and expertise needed to operate the missile and target an air base are probably only present in the rump of Saleh's army.

Michael Elleman

The Saudi objectives in Yemen appear more about standing up to Iran and showing that it will fight back if it tries to expand its influence in the Arab world.

Michael Elleman