The three main U.S. indexes turned positive on the year, which seems to suggest to me that markets are entering risk-on mode from risk-off.

Mutsumi Kagawa

Categorized in : Top News

The economy is softening and will soften for now. But whether the U.S. is entering a recession is still debatable, lower bond yields will support the economy while (U.S. President Donald) Trump is likely to take steps to support the economy as he seeks re-election. The economy could pick up later this year.

Initially investors saw Trump's moves as negotiation tactics to get better deals. But now they are starting to worry about the damage to the economy, people have long thought the U.S. economy will eventually hit a recession at some point. But there are growing worries Trump's trade policies may hasten that. The fear now is that 'America First' may become 'America Worst'.

The rising put-call ratio reflects investors' cautious stance in the market, which reminds us about the geopolitical tensions in the region in the spring.